Sáez Marina, Benavente David, Cuezva Soledad, Huc Mireille, Fernández-Cortés Ángel, Mialon Arnaud, Kerr Yann, Sánchez-Moral Sergio, Mangiarotti Sylvain
Université de Toulouse CESBIO (CNES, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, UPS), Toulouse, France.
University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 6;14(1):10359. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-60149-9.
A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios. It is found that extreme levels of CO were reached during the period 1950-1972 due to the massive affluence of visitors. It is demonstrated that it is possible to monitor the CO in the cave in real time using satellite information as an external forcing. For the future, it is shown that the maximum values of CO will exceed the levels reached during the 1980s and the 1990s when the CO introduced by the touristic visits, although intentionally reduced, still enhanced considerably the micro corrosion of walls and pigments.
一种对初始条件不敏感的数据驱动方法被开发出来，用于提取西班牙阿尔塔米拉洞穴中一氧化碳浓度的控制方程及其两个主要驱动因素：外部温度和土壤湿度。然后对该模型进行了重新构建，以便将卫星观测和气象预测作为强迫因素加以利用。随后，在不同情景下对1950年至2100年洞穴内一氧化碳的浓度进行了研究。研究发现，由于游客的大量涌入，在1950年至1972年期间达到了极高的一氧化碳水平。研究表明，利用卫星信息作为外部强迫因素，可以实时监测洞穴内的一氧化碳。对于未来，研究表明，尽管游客引入的一氧化碳量有意减少，但仍大幅加剧了墙壁和颜料的微腐蚀，一氧化碳的最大值将超过20世纪80年代和90年代达到的水平。
