Garden O J, Motyl H, Gilmour W H, Utley R J, Carter D C
Br J Surg. 1985 Feb;72(2):91-5. doi: 10.1002/bjs.1800720205.
In order to identify factors predicting survival following acute variceal haemorrhage, data were collected prospectively from 100 admissions in 70 patients managed by a standard policy employing oesophageal tamponade, injection sclerotherapy and, if necessary, oesophageal transection. Of the ten predictive factors identified by univariate analysis, only prothrombin ratio, serum creatinine and the presence of encephalopathy on admission were shown by stepwise logistic regression to have independent significance. The derived regression equation allowed clearer identification than conventional scoring systems of high and low risk groups and successfully predicted outcome in 90 per cent of admissions.
为了确定预测急性静脉曲张出血后存活的因素，我们前瞻性地收集了70例患者100次住院的数据，这些患者采用标准治疗策略，包括食管压迫、注射硬化疗法，必要时进行食管横断术。在单因素分析确定的10个预测因素中，逐步逻辑回归显示只有凝血酶原比率、血清肌酐和入院时存在脑病具有独立意义。所推导的回归方程比传统评分系统能更清晰地识别高风险和低风险组，并成功预测了90%住院患者的结局。
