Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Parkowa 5, Kórnik, 62-035, Poland.
Department of Ethnobotany, Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
BMC Plant Biol. 2024 May 9;24(1):381. doi: 10.1186/s12870-024-05081-w.
The wild relatives of cultivated apples would be an ideal source of diversity for breeding new varieties, which could potentially grow in diverse habitats shaped by climate change. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the potential distribution of these species. The aim of the presented work was the understand the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution and habitat fragmentation of Caucasian crab apple (Malus orientalis Uglitzk.) and the designation of areas of high interest according to climatic conditions. We used the MaxEnt models and Morphological-Spatial Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate the potential distribution, suitability changes, habitat fragmentation, and connectivity throughout the species range in Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Iran. The results revealed that the potentially suitable range of M. orientalis encompasses 858,877 km², 635,279 km² and 456,795 km² under the present, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The range fragmentation analysis demonstrated a notable shift in the edge/core ratio, which increased from 50.95% in the current scenario to even 67.70% in the future. The northern part of the range (Armenia, northern Georgia, southern Russia), as well as the central and western parts of Hyrcania will be a core of the species range with suitable habitats and a high connectivity between M. orientalis populations and could work as major refugia for the studied species. However, in the Zagros and central Turkey, the potential range will shrink due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions, and the edge/core ratio will grow. In the southern part of the range, a decline of M. orientalis habitats is expected due to changing climatic conditions. The future outlook suggests that the Hyrcanian forest and the Caucasus region could serve as important refuges for M. orientalis. This study helps to understand spatial changes in species' range in response to climate change and can help develop conservation strategies. This is all the more important given the species' potential use in future breeding programs aimed at enriching the gene pool of cultivated apple varieties.
野生栽培苹果的亲缘种是培育新品种的理想多样性来源，这些品种可能会在由气候变化塑造的不同生境中生长。然而，我们对这些物种的潜在分布仍缺乏了解。本研究的目的是了解气候变化对天山野苹果（Malus orientalis Uglitzk.）潜在分布和生境破碎化的影响，并根据气候条件确定具有高保护价值的区域。我们使用最大熵模型和形态空间分析（MSPA）来评估天山野苹果在土耳其、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯和伊朗的整个分布范围内的潜在分布、适宜性变化、生境破碎化和连通性。结果表明，在当前、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，天山野苹果潜在适宜范围分别为 858877、635279 和 456795km²。范围破碎化分析表明，边缘/核心比率有明显变化，从当前情景的 50.95%增加到未来情景的 67.70%。分布范围的北部（亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚北部、俄罗斯南部）以及赫卡尼亚的中部和西部将成为该物种分布范围的核心区域，具有适宜的栖息地和天山野苹果种群之间的高连通性，可以作为该研究物种的主要避难所。然而，在扎格罗斯山脉和土耳其中部，由于缺乏适宜的气候条件，潜在范围将会缩小，边缘/核心比率将会增加。在分布范围的南部，由于气候条件的变化，天山野苹果的栖息地预计会减少。未来展望表明，赫卡尼亚森林和高加索地区可能成为天山野苹果的重要避难所。本研究有助于了解物种分布范围对气候变化的空间变化，并有助于制定保护策略。鉴于该物种在未来旨在丰富栽培苹果品种基因库的育种计划中的潜在用途，这一点尤为重要。
