Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Parkowa 5, 62-035, Kórnik, Poland.
J Plant Res. 2023 Jul;136(4):501-514. doi: 10.1007/s10265-023-01457-5. Epub 2023 Apr 28.
Changes in environmental factors, human impact, and interactions between them accelerate the extinction of woody species. Therefore, conservation programs are needed to protect endangered taxa. However, the relationship between climate, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic activities and their consequences are still not well understood. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change and human population density on the Buxus hyrcana Pojark distribution range, as well as the phenomenon of habitat fragmentation. Based on species occurrence data throughout the Hyrcanian Forests (north of Iran), the MAXENT model was employed to estimate the potential distribution and suitability changes. Morphological-spatial analysis (MSPA) and CIRCUITSCAPE were used to assess habitat fragmentation and its connectivity. According to the main results obtained from future scenarios, the potential range will significantly decrease due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions. Meanwhile, B. hyrcana may not be able to shift in potentially suitable areas because of human influence and geographic barriers. Under RCP scenarios the extent of the core area would be reduced and the edge/core ratio significantly increased. Altogether, we found negative effects of the environmental change and the human population density on the continuity of habitats of B. hyrcana. The results of the presented work may improve our knowledge connected with in situ and ex situ protection strategies.
环境因素的变化、人类活动的影响以及它们之间的相互作用加速了木本物种的灭绝。因此，需要保护计划来保护濒危分类群。然而，气候、生境破碎化和人为活动之间的关系及其后果仍未得到很好的理解。在这项工作中，我们旨在评估气候变化和人类人口密度对胡杨分布范围的影响，以及生境破碎化现象。基于胡杨林（伊朗北部）的物种发生数据，使用 MAXENT 模型估计潜在分布和适宜性变化。形态空间分析（MSPA）和 CIRCUITSCAPE 用于评估生境破碎化及其连通性。根据未来情景得出的主要结果，由于缺乏适宜的气候条件，潜在范围将显著减少。同时，由于人类的影响和地理障碍，B. hyrcana 可能无法在潜在适宜地区转移。在 RCP 情景下，核心区的范围将会缩小，边缘/核心比将显著增加。总之，我们发现环境变化和人口密度对 B. hyrcana 栖息地连续性有负面影响。本研究结果可能会提高我们对就地和易地保护策略的认识。
