Chair and Department of Biology and Parasitology, Medical University of Lublin, Radziwiłłowska St. 11, 20-080, Lublin, Poland.
Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, Nijmegen, GL, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 10;14(1):10768. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-61349-z.
Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.
莱姆病（LB）是北半球最常见的蜱传疾病。由于目前尚无有效的疫苗，因此预防传播至关重要。这反过来又需要对 LB 传播的时空动态及其潜在驱动因素有透彻的了解。本研究旨在使用 2010 年至 2019 年为 320 个（聚合）区获得的一致监测数据，确定波兰莱姆病发病率的时空趋势，并揭示其环境和社会经济协变量。我们使用每年的 LB 发病率值，确定了 2010 年至 2019 年 LB 发病率的总体增加。此外，我们观察到波兰各地区 LB 发病率存在很大差异，东部地区的 LB 风险最高。我们在全子集建模框架中应用时空贝叶斯模型，以评估 LB 发病率与各种潜在相关的环境和社会经济变量之间的潜在关联，包括气候条件以及植被特征和蜱宿主物种密度。最佳支持的时空模型确定了 LB 发病率与森林覆盖率、公园和绿地份额、最低月平均温度、月平均降水量和总初级生产力之间存在正相关关系。与人口密度呈负相关。我们的研究结果表明，由于持续的气候变化，特别是最低月平均温度的升高，波兰的 LB 发病率可能会增加。我们的研究结果可能有助于制定有针对性的预防策略。
