Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe-University, Max-von-Laue-Str. 13, 60438, Frankfurt/Main, Germany.
Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt/Main, Germany.
Parasitol Res. 2022 Aug;121(8):2241-2252. doi: 10.1007/s00436-022-07556-x. Epub 2022 Jun 1.
Tick-borne diseases are a major health problem worldwide and could become even more important in Europe in the future. Due to changing climatic conditions, ticks are assumed to be able to expand their ranges in Europe towards higher latitudes and altitudes, which could result in an increased occurrence of tick-borne diseases.There is a great interest to identify potential (new) areas of distribution of vector species in order to assess the future infection risk with vector-borne diseases, improve surveillance, to develop more targeted monitoring program, and, if required, control measures.Based on an ecological niche modelling approach we project the climatic suitability for the three tick species Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe. These common tick species also feed on humans and livestock and are vector competent for a number of pathogens.For niche modelling, we used a comprehensive occurrence data set based on several databases and publications and six bioclimatic variables in a maximum entropy approach. For projections, we used the most recent IPCC data on current and future climatic conditions including four different scenarios of socio-economic developments.Our models clearly support the assumption that the three tick species will benefit from climate change with projected range expansions towards north-eastern Europe and wide areas in central Europe with projected potential co-occurrence.A higher tick biodiversity and locally higher abundances might increase the risk of tick-borne diseases, although other factors such as pathogen prevalence and host abundances are also important.
蜱传疾病是全球范围内的一个主要健康问题,未来在欧洲可能变得更为重要。由于气候条件的变化,蜱虫被认为能够在欧洲向更高的纬度和海拔地区扩张,这可能导致蜱传疾病的发生增加。为了评估未来由媒介传播的疾病的感染风险,改善监测,制定更有针对性的监测计划,并在必要时采取控制措施,人们非常有兴趣确定媒介物种潜在的(新)分布区域。
基于生态位模型方法,我们预测了在当前和未来欧洲气候条件下三种蜱虫(硬蜱、血红扇头蜱和璃眼蜱)的气候适宜性。这些常见的蜱虫也以人类和家畜为食,并且能够传播多种病原体。
对于生态位建模,我们使用了一个综合的基于几个数据库和出版物的发生数据集合,并采用最大熵方法使用了六个生物气候变量。对于预测,我们使用了 IPCC 关于当前和未来气候条件的最新数据,包括四种不同的社会经济发展情景。
我们的模型清楚地支持了这样一种假设,即三种蜱虫将受益于气候变化,预计其分布范围将向东北欧和中欧的大片地区扩张,预计潜在的共存范围也会扩大。蜱虫生物多样性的增加和局部地区的数量增加可能会增加蜱传疾病的风险,尽管其他因素如病原体的流行和宿主的数量也很重要。