Chen Jiangqiang, Wang Saige, Zhong Honglin, Chen Bin, Fang Dan
School of Economics, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangdong 510220, China.
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jul 10;933:173077. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173077. Epub 2024 May 10.
Agriculture is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Farm size affects agricultural production inputs and thus has impacts on agricultural GHG emissions. However, the effects and mechanisms behind this are still unclear. In this paper, we identified the effects and mechanisms of farm size on agricultural GHG emissions, based on survey data about over 20,000 rural households in China from 2009 to 2016. Firstly, we calculated the agricultural CO, CH, and NO emissions using the life-cycle analysis (LCA). Secondly, the impacts of farm size on GHG emissions intensity were explored with a fixed effect model, based on the long-term rural household survey data. Finally, the mechanisms were tested by the mediation effect model. The results showed that a 1 % increase in farm size, on average, could reduce the GHG emissions intensity of rural households by 0.245 % from 2009 to 2016. The mechanism analysis showed that the larger farm size reduced GHG emissions intensity mainly by reducing the non-fixed input intensity and raising fixed input investment. By identifying the impacts and mechanisms of farm size on agricultural GHG emissions, this paper aims to provide insights for policymakers to achieve China's goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060.
农业是温室气体（GHG）排放的主要贡献者。农场规模影响农业生产投入，进而对农业温室气体排放产生影响。然而，其背后的影响及机制仍不明确。在本文中，我们基于2009年至2016年对中国2万多户农村家庭的调查数据，确定了农场规模对农业温室气体排放的影响及机制。首先，我们使用生命周期分析（LCA）计算了农业一氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮的排放量。其次，基于长期农村家庭调查数据，用固定效应模型探究了农场规模对温室气体排放强度的影响。最后，通过中介效应模型对机制进行了检验。结果表明，从2009年到2016年，农场规模平均每增加1%，农村家庭的温室气体排放强度可降低0.245%。机制分析表明，较大的农场规模主要通过降低非固定投入强度和增加固定投入投资来降低温室气体排放强度。通过确定农场规模对农业温室气体排放的影响及机制，本文旨在为政策制定者实现中国到2060年达到碳中和的目标提供见解。
