Cooper-Stanbury Mark
University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
J Aging Health. 2025 Jun;37(5-6):347-355. doi: 10.1177/08982643241248207. Epub 2024 Apr 26.
ObjectivesThis paper aims to apply a novel demographic technique to update - and extend to sub-national regions - estimates of the lifetime probability of admission to residential aged care.MethodsMaking optimal use of Australian data sources on aged care usage, mortality and population, this study adopts a two-population life table approach to produce an updated set of national probability estimates and first-time regional estimates.ResultsThe probability of admission generally increases with age: nationally, lifetime probability at age 65 is 50% for women and 37% for men, rising to 55% and 46%, respectively, at age 85. This general pattern varied somewhat across regions.DiscussionThe regional results point to inequities in the uptake of care, thereby informing providers, governments, aged care advocates and anyone interested in equity of access.
目标
本文旨在应用一种新颖的人口统计技术来更新——并扩展到次国家区域——入住老年护理机构的终身概率估计。
方法
本研究充分利用澳大利亚关于老年护理使用、死亡率和人口的数据源，采用双人群生命表方法来生成一组更新的全国概率估计值和首次区域估计值。
结果
在全国范围内，65岁时女性的终身概率为50%，男性为37%，85岁时分别升至55%和46%。这种总体模式在不同地区略有差异。
讨论
区域结果表明在护理获取方面存在不公平现象，从而为提供者、政府、老年护理倡导者以及任何关注获取公平性的人提供信息。
