Cantalini Stefano, Ohlsson-Wijk Sofi, Andersson Gunnar
Department of Sociology, Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
Eur J Popul. 2024 May 22;40(1):15. doi: 10.1007/s10680-024-09703-9.
Developments over time in the prevalence of marriage and cohabitation formation has long received much interest, but less is known about more recent developments for different population subgroups in European countries. This applies as well to Sweden, a country considered a forerunner in family-demographic change. In contrast, much attention has been paid to the falling birth rates during the 2010s, and explanations that focus on the role of increasing uncertainties. In the Swedish case, the fertility decline has been documented across all main socio-demographic subgroups. The objective of this study is to examine whether the same situation holds for first marriage and cohabitation formation during the 2010s and the exceptional years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on Swedish population registers, including with new cohabitation data, we present annual indices of first marriage formation (1991-2022) and cohabitation formation (2012-2022) across a number of socio-demographic strata. We demonstrate a continuous decline in first marriage formation since the early 2010s with an additional sharp dip during the pandemic and a post-pandemic recovery. In contrast, there was a remarkable stability in cohabitation formation during 2012-2022. Although socio-demographic groups differ in their overall levels of marriage and cohabitation formation, the recent trends are strikingly similar across groups. Cohabiting couples, across population subgroups, have become less inclined to transition their union status to a more committed level, as manifested by marriage or parenthood. This occurred in spite of a positive economic climate in the 2010s and stable family policies, indicating that other forces are at play.
长期以来，婚姻和同居形成率随时间的变化备受关注，但对于欧洲国家不同人口亚群体的最新发展情况却知之甚少。瑞典作为家庭人口结构变化的先驱国家，情况也是如此。相比之下，人们更多地关注了2010年代出生率的下降，并着重探讨了不确定性增加所起的作用。就瑞典而言，所有主要社会人口亚群体的生育率都出现了下降。本研究的目的是考察在2010年代以及新冠疫情这一特殊时期，初婚和同居形成情况是否也呈现相同态势。基于瑞典人口登记数据，包括新的同居数据，我们给出了多个社会人口阶层的初婚形成（1991 - 2022年）和同居形成（2012 - 2022年）的年度指数。我们发现，自2010年代初以来，初婚形成率持续下降，在疫情期间又出现了大幅下降，之后在疫情后有所回升。相比之下，2012 - 2022年期间同居形成情况则相当稳定。尽管不同社会人口群体在婚姻和同居形成的总体水平上存在差异，但近期各群体的趋势却惊人地相似。各人口亚群体中的同居伴侣向婚姻或生育等更具承诺性的关系状态转变的意愿有所降低。尽管2010年代经济形势良好且家庭政策稳定，但仍出现了这种情况，这表明还有其他因素在起作用。
