Climate change impact on groundwater resources in sandbar aquifers in southern Baltic coast.

Shallow coastal aquifers are vulnerable hydrosystems controlled by many factors, related to climate, seawater-freshwater interactions and human activity. Given on-going climate change, sea level rise and increasing human impact, it is especially true for groundwater resources situated in sandbars. We developed numerical models of unsaturated zone water flow for two sandbars in northern Poland: the Vistula Spit and the Hel Spit using HYDRUS-1D. The simulations were performed for three types of land use: pine forest, grass cover and bare soil, for 2024-2100 based on weather data and sea level rise forecasts for two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results present prognosis of groundwater recharge, water table level and water content changeability in near-term (2023-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), and long-term period (2081-2100). Expected sea level rise and decreasing hydraulic gradient of the sandbar aquifers will probably cause in-land movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface, leading to significant decrease or complete salinization of groundwater resources. The study shows that holistic monitoring including groundwater level and salinization, sea level rise, and metheorological data (precipitation amount and variability, temperature) is crucial for sustainable management of vulnerable aquifers located in sandbars.