Esrey S A, Feachem R G, Hughes J M
Bull World Health Organ. 1985;63(4):757-72.
A theoretical model is proposed that relates the level of ingestion of diarrhoea-causing pathogens to the frequency of diarrhoea in the community. The implications of this model are that, in poor communities with inadequate water supply and excreta disposal, reducing the level of enteric pathogen ingestion by a given amount will have a greater impact on diarrhoea mortality rates than on morbidity rates, a greater impact on the incidence rate of severe diarrhoea than on that of mild diarrhoea, and a greater impact on diarrhoea caused by pathogens having high infectious doses than on diarrhoea caused by pathogens of a low infectious dose. The impact of water supply and sanitation on diarrhoea, related infections, nutritional status, and mortality is analysed by reviewing 67 studies from 28 countries. The median reductions in diarrhoea morbidity rates are 22% from all studies and 27% from a few better-designed studies. All studies of the impact on total mortality rates show a median reduction of 21%, while the few better-designed studies give a median reduction of 30%. Improvements in water quality have less of an impact than improvements in water availability or excreta disposal.
提出了一个理论模型,该模型将导致腹泻的病原体摄入水平与社区腹泻发生频率联系起来。该模型的意义在于,在供水和排泄物处理不足的贫困社区,将肠道病原体摄入水平降低一定量,对腹泻死亡率的影响比对发病率的影响更大,对严重腹泻发病率的影响比对轻度腹泻发病率的影响更大,对由高感染剂量病原体引起的腹泻的影响比对低感染剂量病原体引起的腹泻的影响更大。通过回顾来自28个国家的67项研究,分析了供水和卫生设施对腹泻、相关感染、营养状况和死亡率的影响。所有研究中腹泻发病率的中位数降低了22%,而一些设计较好的研究中这一数字为27%。所有关于对总死亡率影响的研究显示中位数降低了21%,而一些设计较好的研究给出的中位数降低为30%。水质改善的影响小于供水量增加或排泄物处理改善的影响。