Faculty of Medicine, Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Department of Visceral Surgery and Medicine, Inselspital Bern and Bern University, Bern, Switzerland.
PLoS One. 2024 May 24;19(5):e0304374. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304374. eCollection 2024.
Colonoscopy-based screening provides protection against colorectal cancer (CRC), but the optimal starting age and time intervals of screening colonoscopies are unknown. We aimed to determine an optimal screening schedule for the US population and its dependencies on the objective of screening (life years gained or incidence, mortality, or cost reduction) and the setting in which screening is performed. We used our established open-source microsimulation model CMOST to calculate optimized colonoscopy schedules with one, two, three or four screening colonoscopies between 20 and 90 years of age. A single screening colonoscopy was most effective in reducing life years lost from CRC when performed at 55 years of age. Two, three and four screening colonoscopy schedules saved a maximum number of life years when performed between 49-64 years; 44-69 years; and 40-72 years; respectively. However, for maximum incidence and mortality reduction, screening colonoscopies needed to be scheduled 4-8 years later in life. The optimum was also influenced by adenoma detection efficiency with lower values for these parameters favoring a later starting age of screening. Low adherence to screening consistently favored a later start and an earlier end of screening. In a personalized approach, optimal screening would start earlier for high-risk patients and later for low-risk individuals. In conclusion, our microsimulation-based approach supports colonoscopy screening schedule between 45 and 75 years of age but the precise timing depends on the objective of screening, as well as assumptions regarding individual CRC risk, efficiency of adenoma detection during colonoscopy and adherence to screening.
基于结肠镜检查的筛查可预防结直肠癌(CRC),但最佳筛查起始年龄和筛查结肠镜检查的时间间隔尚不清楚。我们旨在为美国人群确定最佳筛查方案,并确定其对筛查目标(获得的生命年、发病率、死亡率或成本降低)和筛查实施环境的依赖关系。我们使用我们建立的开源微观模拟模型 CMOST 来计算最佳的结肠镜检查方案,即在 20 至 90 岁之间进行一次、两次、三次或四次筛查结肠镜检查。当在 55 岁时进行单次筛查结肠镜检查时,对降低 CRC 导致的生命年损失最有效。当在 49-64 岁、44-69 岁和 40-72 岁之间进行两次、三次和四次筛查结肠镜检查时,可节省最多的生命年。然而,为了最大程度地降低发病率和死亡率,需要在生命后期安排筛查结肠镜检查。最佳时间还受到腺瘤检出效率的影响,这些参数值越低,筛查开始的年龄就越晚。低的筛查依从性始终有利于推迟筛查的开始和结束。在个性化方法中,高危患者的最佳筛查开始时间更早,低危个体的筛查开始时间更晚。总之,我们基于微观模拟的方法支持在 45 至 75 岁之间进行结肠镜筛查,但具体时间取决于筛查的目标,以及对个体 CRC 风险、结肠镜检查期间腺瘤检出效率和筛查依从性的假设。