A Novel Nomogram to Predict Prognosis of Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Plus Anti-PD1.

PURPOSE

The combination of radiotherapy and monoclonal antibody against programmed cell death 1 (anti-PD1) showed preliminary efficacy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors and construct a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced HCC after treatment with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plus anti-PD1.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The OS and progression-free survival (PFS) of 102 patients with BCLC stage C HCC was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Potential independent prognostic factors were determined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram was established to predict prognosis whose accuracy and reliability was verified by a calibration curve and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The median PFS and OS rates of the 102 patients with advanced HCC were 9.9 months and 14.3 months, respectively. Ninety-three patients were evaluated for efficacy, including five (5.38%) with complete response and 48 (51.61%) with partial response, with an overall response rate of 56.99%. Grade 3 and 4 adverse reactions (AEs) were observed in 32.35% of patients; no grade 5 AEs occurred. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed albumin and alpha-fetoprotein levels, neutrophil counts 3-4 weeks after IMRT initiation, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio 3-4 weeks after IMRT initiation to be independent prognostic factors. The nomogram model constructed using these factors had good consistency and accuracy with 1-3 years AUROC of 78.7, 78.6, and 93.5, respectively.

CONCLUSION

IMRT plus anti-PD1 showed promising efficacy and controllable adverse reactions in treating advanced HCC. The nomogram model demonstrated good reliability and clinical applicability.