Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, 1-757 Asahimachi dori, Chuo-ku, Niigata City, 951-8510, Niigata, Japan.
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, Japan.
Int J Biometeorol. 2024 Sep;68(9):1903-1907. doi: 10.1007/s00484-024-02712-7. Epub 2024 May 27.
Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is a major cause of upper and lower respiratory tract infections and respiratory tract disease in humans. While accumulated pieces of epidemiological evidence suggest an association between meteorological factors and the risk of M. pneumoniae pneumonia, comprehensive nationwide studies on this topic are lacking. We aimed to systematically assess the effect of meteorological factors such as mean temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of M. pneumoniae pneumonia in Japan over a 15-year period from 2005 to 2019. The exposure - response relationships between incidence of M. pneumoniae pneumonia, mean temperature, and relative humidity in all 47 Japanese prefectures (covering whole country) for 2005 - 2019 were quantified by using a distributed lag non-linear model for each prefecture and the estimates from all the prefectures were then pooled using a multivariate mete-regression model to derive nationwide average associations. The study encompassed a total of 162,845 M. pneumoniae pneumonia cases. Our findings indicate that seasonal variations in weekly mean temperature and relative humidity were positively associated with the incidence of M. pneumoniae pneumonia. Specifically, when considering - 1.3 °C as the reference, the relative risk (RR) peaked at 16.8 °C (with RRs of 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.70). Similarly, when using 45.5% relative humidity as the reference, the RR reached its peak at 87.7% (with RRs of 1.49, 95% CI: 1.33-1.67). These results emphasize the necessity of implementing climate change adaptation strategies and public health interventions in regions vulnerable to M. pneumoniae pneumonia.
肺炎支原体（M. pneumoniae）是人类上呼吸道和下呼吸道感染和呼吸道疾病的主要病因。虽然有大量的流行病学证据表明气象因素与肺炎支原体肺炎的风险之间存在关联，但缺乏对此主题的全面全国性研究。我们旨在系统评估从 2005 年到 2019 年的 15 年间，平均温度和相对湿度等气象因素对日本肺炎支原体肺炎发病率的影响。使用分布式滞后非线性模型对日本所有 47 个县（覆盖全国）的肺炎支原体肺炎发病率、平均温度和相对湿度之间的暴露-反应关系进行了量化，然后使用多变量 mete-regression 模型对所有县的估计值进行了汇总，以得出全国平均关联。该研究共包括 162845 例肺炎支原体肺炎病例。我们的研究结果表明，每周平均温度和相对湿度的季节性变化与肺炎支原体肺炎的发病率呈正相关。具体来说，当以-1.3°C为参考时，相对风险（RR）在 16.8°C时达到峰值（RRs 为 1.50，95%置信区间（CI）：1.32-1.70）。同样，当以 45.5%的相对湿度为参考时，RR 在 87.7%时达到峰值（RRs 为 1.49，95%CI：1.33-1.67）。这些结果强调了在易受肺炎支原体肺炎影响的地区实施气候变化适应策略和公共卫生干预措施的必要性。
