日本肺炎支原体肺炎的气候变异性与非平稳动态
Climate variability and nonstationary dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in Japan.
作者信息
Onozuka Daisuke, Chaves Luis Fernando
机构信息
Department of Planning Information and Administration, Fukuoka Institute of Health and Environmental Sciences, Fukuoka, Japan.
Programa de Investigación en Enfermedades Tropicales, Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional, Heredia, Costa Rica; Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2014 Apr 16;9(4):e95447. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0095447. eCollection 2014.
BACKGROUND
A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales.
METHODS
We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
RESULTS
Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1-2-year periodic mode in 2005-2007 and 2010-2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics.
CONCLUSIONS
Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.
背景
人们普遍认为气候因素与肺炎支原体（M. pneumoniae）肺炎的流行之间存在固定关联。然而，尚不清楚与肺炎支原体肺炎传播相关的当地气候要素在不同时间尺度上其动态变化是否具有气候因素的固定特征。
方法
我们进行了交叉小波相干分析，以评估2000年至2012年日本福冈市每月肺炎支原体病例与印度洋偶极子（IOD）和厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）指数之间的关联模式。
结果
在2005 - 2007年和2010 - 2011年的1 - 2年周期模式下，每月肺炎支原体病例与IOD和ENSO的动态变化均密切相关。这种关联是非固定的，似乎对肺炎支原体流行的同步性有重大影响。
结论
我们的结果表明，在预警系统中需要考虑肺炎支原体病例与气候因素之间非固定的、可能是非线性的关联模式。
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