Potential decoupling of CO and Hg uptake process by global vegetation in the 21st century.

Mercury (Hg), a potent neurotoxin posing risks to human health, is cycled through vegetation uptake, which is susceptible to climate change impacts. However, the extent and pattern of these impacts are largely unknown, obstructing predictions of Hg's fate in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the effects of climate change on vegetation elemental Hg [Hg(0)] uptake using a state-of-the-art global terrestrial Hg model (CLM5-Hg) that incorporates plant physiology. In a business-as-usual scenario, the terrestrial Hg(0) sink is predicted to decrease by 1870 Mg yr in 2100, that is ~60% lower than the present-day condition. We find a potential decoupling between the trends of CO assimilation and Hg(0) uptake process by vegetation in the 21st century, caused by the decreased stomatal conductance with increasing CO. This implies a substantial influx of Hg into aquatic ecosystems, posing an elevated threat that warrants consideration during the evaluation of the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention.