[Risk factors for embolism in children with refractory pneumonia and construction of a nomogram model for prediction of embolism].

OBJECTIVES

To study the risk factors for embolism in children with refractory pneumonia (RMPP) and to construct a nomogram model for prediction of embolism.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 175 children diagnosed with RMPP at Children's Hospital Affiliated toZhengzhou University from January 2019 to October 2023. They were divided into two groups based on the presence of embolism: the embolism group (=62) and the non-embolism group (=113). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors of embolism in children with RMPP, and the R software was applied to construct the nomogram model for prediction of embolism.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that higher levels of D-dimer, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lung necrosis, and pleural effusion were risk factors for embolism in children with RMPP (<0.05). The area under the curve of the nomogram model for prediction of embolism constructed based on the aforementioned risk factors was 0.912 (95%: 0.871-0.952, <0.05). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that the model had a good fit with the actual situation (<0.05). Calibration and decision curve analysis indicated that the model had high predictive efficacy and clinical applicability.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of D-dimer, IL-6 and NLR, lung necrosis, and pleural effusion are risk factors for embolism in children with RMPP. The nomogram model based on these risk factors has high clinical value for predicting embolism in children with RMPP.