Department of Geography, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Korea.
Department of Geography Education, College of Education, Korea University, Seoul, Korea.
J Korean Med Sci. 2024 May 27;39(20):e168. doi: 10.3346/jkms.2024.39.e168.
South Korea faces a critical challenge with its rapidly declining fertility rates and an increasingly aging population, which significantly impacts the country's blood supply and demand. Despite these nationwide trends, regional disparities in blood supply and demand have not been thoroughly studied.
This research utilized blood donation data from the Korean Red Cross and blood transfusion data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. We analyzed these datasets in conjunction with regional population projections to simulate blood supply and demand from 2021 to 2050 across South Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various factors, including the number of donors, age eligibility criteria for donations, frequency of donations, and blood discard rates.
Our projections indicate a decreasing trend in blood supply, from 2.6 million units in 2021 to 1.4 million units by 2050, while demand is expected to peak at 5.1 million units by 2045 before declining. Metropolitan areas, particularly Gyeonggi Province, are projected to experience the most severe shortages. Sensitivity analyses suggest that increasing the donation frequency of existing donors and relaxing age eligibility criteria are more effective strategies in addressing these imbalances than merely increasing the number of new donors. Blood discard rates showed minimal impact on the overall blood shortage.
The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate national and regional blood supply shortages in South Korea. Encouraging frequent donations from experienced donors and broadening eligibility criteria are critical steps toward stabilizing the blood supply amidst demographic shifts. These strategies must be prioritized to address the impending regional disparities in blood availability.
韩国面临着生育率迅速下降和人口老龄化日益加剧的严峻挑战，这对该国的血液供应和需求产生了重大影响。尽管存在这些全国性趋势，但血液供应和需求的地区差异尚未得到充分研究。
本研究利用韩国红十字会的献血数据和健康保险审查与评估服务局的输血数据，结合区域人口预测，对 2021 年至 2050 年韩国各地的血液供应和需求进行了模拟。进行了敏感性分析，以评估各种因素的影响，包括献血者人数、献血年龄标准、献血频率和血液废弃率。
我们的预测显示，血液供应呈下降趋势，从 2021 年的 260 万个单位降至 2050 年的 140 万个单位，而需求预计在 2045 年达到 510 万个单位的峰值后下降。大都市地区，特别是京畿道，预计将出现最严重的短缺。敏感性分析表明，增加现有献血者的献血频率和放宽献血年龄标准比仅仅增加新献血者数量更能有效解决这些失衡问题。血液废弃率对总体血液短缺的影响最小。
研究结果强调了韩国急需采取有针对性的策略来缓解全国和地区的血液供应短缺。鼓励有经验的献血者频繁献血并放宽献血年龄标准，是在人口结构变化中稳定血液供应的关键步骤。这些策略必须优先考虑，以解决即将出现的区域性血液供应差异问题。
