School of Geography & Earth Sciences, Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Transfusion. 2012 Feb;52(2):366-74. doi: 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2011.03280.x. Epub 2011 Aug 2.
Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand.
We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand.
Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns.
随着人口老龄化需要增加医疗保健，越来越多的人推迟捐献，以及越来越多的移民群体通常捐献率较低，本文旨在预测安大略省的血液供应和需求。
我们根据 2008 年的数据计算了血液供应的年龄和性别特定的捐献和需求率，并根据这些比率和安大略省财政部的人口数据，预测 2008 年至 2036 年之间的需求。
结果表明，血液需求将早在 2012 年就超过供应。例如，虽然未来几年老年人群体的总捐献人数预计会增加，但 70 岁以上年龄组的红细胞（RBC）输血数量预计将从 2008 年所有 RBC 输血的 53%（209,515）增长到 2036 年的 68%（546,996）。一系列替代方案，包括每年供应增加 2%和增加使用单采技术的预测，延迟了供应短缺，但如果不积极管理和/或采用多种方法增加供应和减少需求，就无法消除供应短缺。
预测表明，考虑到目前的年龄和性别特定的供应和需求率，在不久的将来，对血液制品的需求将超过供应。然而，我们注意到，加拿大血液服务中心对血液供应的谨慎管理，以及新的医疗技术和向系统招募新的捐献者，将消除未来的担忧。
