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新冠疫情后:是时候改变我们的生活方式以迎接更美好的未来了。

Post-COVID-19: Time to Change Our Way of Life for a Better Future.

作者信息

Maurice Roch Listz

机构信息

Groupe Biomédical Montérégie, Centre Intégré de Santé et des Services Sociaux de la Montérégie-Centre (CISSSMC), Brossard, QC J4W 3J8, Canada.

出版信息

Epidemiologia (Basel). 2024 May 22;5(2):211-220. doi: 10.3390/epidemiologia5020015.

Abstract

From the year 1 anno Domini until 1855, with the third plague, major pandemics occurred on average every 348 years. Since then, they have occurred on average every 33 years, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) now underway. Even though current technologies have greatly improved the way of life of human beings, COVID-19, with more than 700,000,000 cases and 6,950,000 deaths worldwide by the end of 2023, reminds us that much remains to be done. This report looks back at 18 months of COVID-19, from March 2020 to August 2021, with the aim of highlighting potential solutions that could help mitigate the impact of future pandemics. COVID-19 data, including case and death reports, were extracted daily from the Worldometer platform to build a database for the macroscopic analysis of the spread of the virus around the world. Demographic data were integrated into the COVID-19 database for a better understanding of the spatial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in cities/municipalities. Without loss of generality, only data from the top 30 (out of 200 and above) countries ranked by total number of COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Statistics (regression, -test ( < 0.05), correlation, mean ± std, etc.) were carried out with Excel software (Microsoft Excel 2013 (15.0.5579.1001)). Spectral analysis, using Matlab software (license number: 227725), was also used to try to better understand the temporal spread of COVID-19. This study showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries and that cities/municipalities with high population density are a powerful activator of the spread of the virus. In addition, spectral analysis highlighted that the very first months of the spread of COVID-19 were the most notable, with a strong expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. On the other hand, the following six months showed a certain level of stability, mainly due to multiple preventive measures such as confinement, the closure of non-essential services, the wearing of masks, distancing of 2 m, etc. Given that densely populated cities and municipal areas have largely favored the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is believed that such a demographic context is becoming a societal problem that developed countries must address in a manner that is adequate and urgent. COVID-19 has made us understand that it is time to act both preventatively and curatively. With phenomenological evidence suggesting that the next pandemic could occur in less than 50 years, it may be time to launch new societal projects aimed at relieving congestion in densely populated regions.

摘要

从公元1年到1855年,伴随着第三次鼠疫,重大疫情平均每348年爆发一次。从那时起,疫情平均每33年爆发一次,如今2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)正在肆虐。尽管当前技术极大地改善了人类的生活方式,但截至2023年底,COVID-19在全球造成了超过7亿例感染和695万例死亡,这提醒我们仍有许多工作要做。本报告回顾了2020年3月至2021年8月这18个月的COVID-19疫情,旨在突出可能有助于减轻未来疫情影响的潜在解决方案。COVID-19数据,包括病例和死亡报告,每天从世界ometers平台提取,以建立一个数据库,用于对病毒在全球传播的宏观分析。人口数据被整合到COVID-19数据库中,以便更好地了解严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)病毒在城市/市镇的空间传播。在不失一般性的前提下,仅分析了COVID-19病例总数排名前30(共200个及以上国家)的国家的数据。使用Excel软件(Microsoft Excel 2013(15.0.5579.1001))进行了统计分析(回归分析、t检验(p<0.05)、相关性分析、均值±标准差等)。还使用Matlab软件(许可证编号:227725)进行了频谱分析,试图更好地理解COVID-19的时间传播规律。本研究表明,COVID-19主要影响二十国集团(G20)国家,人口密度高的城市/市镇是病毒传播的强大助推因素。此外,频谱分析突出显示,COVID-19传播的最初几个月最为显著,SARS-CoV-2病毒大幅扩散。另一方面,随后的六个月呈现出一定程度的稳定性,这主要归功于诸如封锁、关闭非必要服务、佩戴口罩、保持2米社交距离等多项预防措施。鉴于人口密集的城市和市区在很大程度上助长了SARS-CoV-2病毒的传播,人们认为这样的人口状况正成为一个社会问题,发达国家必须以充分且紧迫的方式加以应对。COVID-19让我们明白,是时候采取预防和治疗措施了。有现象学证据表明,下一次疫情可能在不到50年内发生,或许是时候启动新的社会项目,旨在缓解人口密集地区的拥堵状况了。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0797/11130812/c6e4645083d7/epidemiologia-05-00015-g001.jpg

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