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Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study.

作者信息

Tsoumanis Achilleas, Vanden Berghe Wim, Hens Niel, Van Dijck Christophe

机构信息

Department of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp, Nationalestraat 155, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium.

Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium.

出版信息

Infect Dis Rep. 2024 May 6;16(3):435-447. doi: 10.3390/idr16030032.


DOI:10.3390/idr16030032
PMID:38804442
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11130929/
Abstract

Mathematical modeling is widely used for describing infection transmission and evaluating interventions. The lack of reliable social parameters in the literature has been mentioned by many modeling studies, leading to limitations in the validity and interpretation of the results. Using data from the European MSM Internet survey 2017, we developed a network model to describe sex acts among MSM in Belgium. The model simulates daily sex acts among steady, persistent casual and one-off partners in a population of 10,000 MSM, grouped as low- or high-activity by using three different definitions. Model calibration was used to estimate partnership duration and homophily rates to match the distribution of cumulative sex partners over 12 months. We estimated an average duration between 1065 and 1409 days for steady partnerships, 4-6 and 251-299 days for assortative high- and low-activity individuals and 8-13 days for disassortative persistent casual partnerships, respectively, varying across the three definitions. High-quality data on social network and behavioral parameters are scarce in the literature. Our study addresses this lack of information by providing a method to estimate crucial parameters for network specification.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/d29b0c87a25b/idr-16-00032-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/645c16426cba/idr-16-00032-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/ab5345cab765/idr-16-00032-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/d29b0c87a25b/idr-16-00032-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/645c16426cba/idr-16-00032-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/ab5345cab765/idr-16-00032-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8d9e/11130929/d29b0c87a25b/idr-16-00032-g003.jpg

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[1]
Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study.

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Switching From Dual to Monotherapy for Gonorrhea is Associated With a Halving of Gonococcal Resistance to Azithromycin-A Modelling Study of MSM in Belgium.

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2025-6-2

本文引用的文献

[1]
Effects of doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis for prevention of sexually transmitted infections on gonorrhoea prevalence and antimicrobial resistance among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study.

Lancet Microbe. 2024-11

[2]
Resistance-minimising strategies for introducing a novel antibiotic for gonorrhoea treatment: a mathematical modelling study.

Lancet Microbe. 2023-10

[3]
Resistance and prevalence implications of doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis for gonorrhea prevention in men who have sex with men: a modeling study.

medRxiv. 2023-4-24

[4]
Rethinking Screening Intensity in Terms of Reducing Prevalence or Increasing Selection Pressure for the Emergence of Resistant Gonorrhea: A Modeling Study of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Belgium.

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2023-3-27

[5]
Projecting the development of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae from antimicrobial surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study.

BMC Infect Dis. 2023-4-20

[6]
Effect of Screening and Treatment for Gonorrhea and Chlamydia on HIV Incidence Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: A Modeling Analysis.

Sex Transm Dis. 2022-10-1

[7]
What is the empirical basis for converting banded ordinal data on numbers of sex partners among MSM into a continuous scale level variable? A secondary analysis of 13 surveys across 17 countries.

BMC Med Res Methodol. 2022-3-6

[8]
A Gonococcal Vaccine Has the Potential to Rapidly Reduce the Incidence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Infection Among Urban Men Who Have Sex With Men.

J Infect Dis. 2022-3-15

[9]
Awareness of, Willingness to Take PrEP and Its Actual Use Among Belgian MSM at High Risk of HIV Infection: Secondary Analysis of the Belgian European MSM Internet Survey.

AIDS Behav. 2022-6

[10]
Modelling response strategies for controlling gonorrhoea outbreaks in men who have sex with men in Australia.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021-11

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