Energy Macro and Microeconomics Department, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, P.O. Box 88550, Riyadh, 11672, Saudi Arabia; Research Program on Forecasting, Economics Department, The George Washington University, 2115 G Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052, USA; Modeling Socio-economic Processes, Institute of Control Systems, 9 Bakhtiyar Vahabzadeh, Baku, 1141, Azerbaijan.
Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, 02481, South Korea; Faculty of Business and International Relations, Vistula University, Stoklosy 3, 02-787, Warsaw, Poland; Department of Economics and Management, Khazar University, Baku, Azerbaijan; BEU-Scientific Research Center, Baku Engineering University, Baku, Azerbaijan.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Jun;361:121220. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121220. Epub 2024 May 27.
On the one hand, economies, particularly developing ones, need to grow. On the other hand, climate change is the most pressing issue globally, and nations should take the necessary measures. Such a complex task requires new theoretical and empirical models to capture this complexity and provide new insights. Our study uses a newly developed theoretical framework that involves renewable energy consumption (REC) and total factor productivity (TFP) alongside traditional factors of CO2 emissions. It provides policymakers with border information compared to traditional models, such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), being limited to income and population. Advanced panel time series methods are also employed, addressing panel data issues while producing not only pooled but also country-specific results. 20 Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) nations are considered in this study. The results show that REC, TFP, and exports reduce CO2 emissions with elasticities of 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3, respectively. Oppositely, income and imports increase emissions with elasticities of 0.8 and 0.3. Additionally, we show that RECAI countries are commonly affected by global and regional factors. Moreover, we find that shocks can create permanent changes in the levels of the factors but only temporary changes in their growth rates. The main policy implication of the findings is that authorities should implement measures boosting TFP and REC. These factors are driven mainly by technological progress, innovation, and efficiency gains. Thus, they can simultaneously reduce emissions while promoting long-run green economic growth, which addresses the complexity mentioned above to some extent.
一方面，经济，特别是发展中经济体，需要增长。另一方面，气候变化是全球最紧迫的问题，各国应采取必要措施。如此复杂的任务需要新的理论和经验模型来捕捉这种复杂性并提供新的见解。我们的研究使用了一个新开发的理论框架，该框架涉及可再生能源消费 (REC) 和全要素生产率 (TFP) 以及传统的二氧化碳排放因素。与传统模型（如环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC)）相比，它为政策制定者提供了边界信息，传统模型仅限于收入和人口。还采用了先进的面板时间序列方法，解决了面板数据问题，不仅产生了汇总结果，还产生了具体国家的结果。本研究考虑了 20 个可再生能源国家吸引力指数 (RECAI) 国家。结果表明，REC、TFP 和出口分别以 0.3、0.4 和 0.3 的弹性降低了二氧化碳排放量。相反，收入和进口以 0.8 和 0.3 的弹性增加了排放量。此外，我们表明，RECAI 国家通常受到全球和区域因素的影响。此外，我们发现冲击可以在这些因素的水平上造成永久性变化，但只能在增长率上造成暂时性变化。研究结果的主要政策含义是，当局应采取措施提高 TFP 和 REC。这些因素主要受技术进步、创新和效率提高的驱动。因此，它们可以在减少排放的同时促进长期绿色经济增长，在一定程度上解决了上述复杂性。
