Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Department of Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, USA.
Nat Commun. 2024 May 29;15(1):4419. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-48239-8.
Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are under increasing environmental pressure. Monitoring colony size and population trends of this Antarctic seabird relies primarily on satellite imagery recorded near the end of the breeding season, when light conditions levels are sufficient to capture images, but colony occupancy is highly variable. To correct population estimates for this variability, we develop a phenological model that can predict the number of breeding pairs and fledging chicks, as well as key phenological events such as arrival, hatching and foraging times, from as few as six data points from a single season. The ability to extrapolate occupancy from sparse data makes the model particularly useful for monitoring remotely sensed animal colonies where ground-based population estimates are rare or unavailable.
帝企鹅（Aptenodytes forsteri）正面临日益增加的环境压力。监测这种南极海鸟的聚居地规模和种群趋势主要依赖于繁殖季节末期记录的卫星图像，此时光照条件足以捕捉图像，但聚居地的占有情况变化很大。为了纠正这种变异性对种群估计的影响，我们开发了一种物候模型，该模型可以根据一个季节中仅有的六个数据点来预测繁殖对和育雏的数量，以及关键的物候事件，如到达、孵化和觅食时间。从稀疏的数据中推断出占有量的能力使该模型在监测远程感应动物聚居地时特别有用，因为在这些地方，基于地面的种群估计很少或无法获得。
