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通过多因素分析评估埃塞俄比亚南部低地绿豆作物生产的累积发生率。

Assessment of cumulative incidences of mung bean crop production in lowlands of south Ethiopia through multiple factor analysis.

作者信息

Gata Girma, Kuma Berhanu, Tafesse Alula

机构信息

Department of Agricultural Economics, Wolaita Sodo University, P O Box 138, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 May 15;10(10):e31012. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31012. eCollection 2024 May 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31012
PMID:38818191
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11137402/
Abstract

Ethiopian farmers face a combination of risks in agricultural production during a single crop season. However, cumulative incidence assessment of the risks in the agriculture was not researched. Thus, this study aimed at assessing the cumulative incidence components in the production of the mung bean crop in the lowlands of South Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was used with 384 mung bean farmers selected from lowlands of Gamo, Gofa and Wolaita zones. Thirteen original risk types were used to be categorized into a few factors through multiple factor analysis. Factor analysis identified latent variables with an Eigenvalues greater than one. The economic risk factor, the climate-related risk factor, and the systematic risk factor were the first three factors that explain 92.87 % of the inertia cumulatively. The rotated factor loading matrix indicated that under factor one, the encountered risks are an increase in the price of inputs, an increase in the price of food, and financial incidence, which accounted 50 % of the total variance. Under factor two extended dry spells, crop diseases, and wild animals' damage and livestock diseases and deaths variables that accounted for 23.24 % of the total variance. The risk types categorized under systematic risks were social risks and political risks that accounted for 19.61 % of the total variance of risks encountered by mung bean farmers in the study area. Therefore, disentangling systematic risks is important by providing much-needed information to mung bean farmers and policymakers regarding systematic risk management priorities.

摘要

埃塞俄比亚农民在单一作物季节的农业生产中面临多种风险。然而,尚未对农业风险的累积发生率进行研究。因此,本研究旨在评估埃塞俄比亚南部低地绿豆作物生产中的累积发生率构成要素。采用横断面研究方法,从加莫、戈法和沃莱塔地区的低地选取了384名绿豆种植农户。通过多因素分析,将13种原始风险类型归类为几个因素。因子分析确定了特征值大于1的潜在变量。经济风险因素、气候相关风险因素和系统风险因素是累计解释92.87%惯性的前三个因素。旋转因子载荷矩阵表明,在第一个因子下,遇到的风险是投入品价格上涨、食品价格上涨和财务发生率,占总方差的50%。在第二个因子下,长期干旱、作物病害、野生动物破坏以及牲畜疾病和死亡变量占总方差的23.24%。归类为系统风险的风险类型是社会风险和政治风险,占研究区域绿豆种植农户遇到的风险总方差的19.61%。因此,通过向绿豆种植农户和政策制定者提供有关系统风险管理优先事项的急需信息,理清系统风险很重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/6ac86292474c/fx2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/9e063abf38e8/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/99a3578b661d/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/0b5670af3761/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/6ac86292474c/fx2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/9e063abf38e8/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/99a3578b661d/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/0b5670af3761/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6f1/11137402/6ac86292474c/fx2.jpg

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