Amondo Emily, Simtowe Franklin, Rahut Dil Bahadur, Erenstein Olaf
Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya.
Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag. 2019;11(4):570-591. doi: 10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2018-0024. Epub 2019 Aug 19.
Productivity and production risks affect the use of agricultural production practices and inputs, particularly in developing countries. This paper aims to investigate the effects of adopting drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on farm productivity, yield variance and downside risk exposure of maize growing households of Zambia.
DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The study uses household survey data collected from 11 maize producing districts of Eastern, Southern and Copperbelt provinces of Zambia using a structured questionnaire. The Antle's flexible moment-based approach was used in specifying, estimating and testing a stochastic production function. The study further applied an endogenous switching regression model to control for both observable and unobservable sources of bias.
The study revealed that DTMV adoption increases maize yield by 15 per cent and reduces the risk of crop failure: reducing yield variance by 38 per cent and exposure to downside risk by 36 per cent.
ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study establishes the benefits of DTMV adoption in Zambia with regards to productivity, yield stability and downside risk in the face of climate change. Results from this study underscore the need for more concerted efforts to scale-out DTMVs for both maize productivity enhancement and for risk mitigation against weather shocks.
生产率和生产风险会影响农业生产实践和投入的使用，在发展中国家尤其如此。本文旨在研究采用耐旱玉米品种（DTMVs）对赞比亚玉米种植农户的农场生产率、产量方差和下行风险敞口的影响。
设计/方法/途径：该研究使用了通过结构化问卷从赞比亚东部、南部和铜带省的11个玉米生产区收集的家庭调查数据。在设定、估计和检验随机生产函数时采用了安特尔基于矩的灵活方法。该研究进一步应用内生转换回归模型来控制可观测和不可观测的偏差来源。
该研究表明，采用耐旱玉米品种可使玉米产量提高15%，并降低作物歉收风险：使产量方差降低38%，下行风险敞口降低36%。
原创性/价值：本研究确定了在赞比亚采用耐旱玉米品种在面对气候变化时在生产率、产量稳定性和下行风险方面的益处。本研究的结果强调需要做出更协调一致的努力，扩大耐旱玉米品种的种植规模，以提高玉米生产率并减轻天气冲击带来的风险。
