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基于流行病学参数数据,探讨 COVID-19 大流行模型的随机摄动优势变体。

Based on epidemiological parameter data, probe into a stochastically perturbed dominant variant of the COVID-19 pandemic model.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Government Arts College for Women, Nilakottai 624 202, Tamil Nadu, India.

Department of Mathematics, Arignar Anna Government Arts College, Musiri, Tamil Nadu, India.

出版信息

Gene. 2024 Oct 30;926:148608. doi: 10.1016/j.gene.2024.148608. Epub 2024 May 31.

DOI:10.1016/j.gene.2024.148608
PMID:38823655
Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 gene mutation has been rapidly emerging and spreading all over the world. Experts worldwide regularly monitor genetic mutations and variants through genome-sequence-based surveillance, laboratory testing, outbreak investigation, and epidemiological probing. Clinical pathologists and medical laboratory scientists prefer developing or endorsing COVID-19 vaccines with a broader immune response involving various antibodies and cells to protect against mutations or new variants. Randomness plays an enormous role in pathology and epidemiology. Hence, based on epidemiological parameter data, we construct and probe a stochastically perturbed dominant variant of the coronavirus epidemic model with three nonlinear saturated incidence rates. We reveal the existence of a unique global positive solution to the constructed stochastic COVID-19 model. The Lyapunov function method is used to determine the presence of a stationary distribution of positive solutions. We derive sufficient conditions for the coronavirus to be eradicated. Eventually, numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of our theoretical outcomes.

摘要

在 COVID-19 大流行期间,SARS-CoV-2 基因发生突变并迅速在全球范围内传播。世界各地的专家通过基于基因组序列的监测、实验室检测、疫情调查和流行病学探究,定期监测基因突变和变体。临床病理学家和医学实验室科学家更倾向于开发或支持具有更广泛免疫反应的 COVID-19 疫苗,该反应涉及各种抗体和细胞,以预防突变或新变体。随机性在病理学和流行病学中起着巨大的作用。因此,我们根据流行病学参数数据,构建并探测了一个具有三个非线性饱和感染率的冠状病毒流行模型的随机摄动优势变体。我们揭示了所构建的随机 COVID-19 模型存在唯一的全局正解。我们使用李雅普诺夫函数方法确定正解的平稳分布的存在性。我们推导出了冠状病毒被根除的充分条件。最后,数值模拟验证了我们理论结果的有效性。

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