Joint National-Local Engineering Research Centre for Safe and Precise Coal Mining, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, Anhui, 232001, China; School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyun, 030324, Shanxi province, China.
School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyun, 030324, Shanxi province, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Jun;362:121222. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121222. Epub 2024 Jun 3.
The carbon generalized system of preferences (CGSP) is an innovative incentive mechanism implemented by the Chinese government, which has also become an important part of carbon emission reduction at the living end, and it is of great significance to study whether the Pilot Policy can reduce the carbon emissions of residents. This study firstly accounts for the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of the residents of 284 cities in China, and on this basis, adopts the SCM method to quantitatively study and analyze the overall and local implementation effects of CGSP in China by taking the first batch of CGSP pilots in China as an example, and further applies the mediation effect model to test the pathways of the role of CGSP. The main findings of the study are as follows: (1) During the period of 2010-2020, the total carbon emissions from urban residents' living in China showed a yearly growth trend, from 36,623.98 ×10Mt in 2010-85,241.20 ×10Mt in 2020, an increase of 8.83%. Total carbon emissions present a structural difference of "electricity consumption > central heating > private transport > gas (oil, natural gas) consumption". (2) Overall, the implementation of the CGSP had a robust positive impact on the overall carbon emission reduction in the pilot cities, with an average annual emission reduction effect value of 36.53 ×10Mt. Locally, the annual net policy effect values of Dongguan, Zhongshan, Heyuan, and Guangzhou are 6169.79 ×10, 26,600.17 ×10, 17,081.34 ×10 and 9393.36 ×10Mt respectively. (3) CGSP has a good carbon emission reduction effect by suppressing the impact on residents' carbon emissions through enhancing the city's innovation capacity and promoting electricity saving and consumption reduction, while the mediating effect played by the promotion of green and low-carbon travel in the pilot policy is not significant. Finally, based on the research findings, relevant suggestions are targeted.
碳普惠系统是中国政府实施的一项创新性激励机制，也是生活端减碳的重要内容，研究该政策能否降低居民碳排放具有重要意义。本文首先核算了中国 284 个城市居民的碳排放量和人均碳排放量，在此基础上，采用 SCM 方法，以中国首批碳普惠试点为例，定量研究和分析 CGSP 在全国的整体和局部实施效果，并进一步应用中介效应模型检验 CGSP 的作用路径。研究主要结论如下：（1）2010—2020 年中国城镇居民生活碳排放量呈逐年增长趋势，由 2010 年的 36623.98×10t 增长至 2020 年的 85241.20×10t，增长了 8.83%。碳排放量结构存在“用电>集中供暖>私人交通>燃气（油、天然气）消费”的差异。（2）总体来看，碳普惠政策的实施对试点城市的整体碳减排具有显著的正向促进作用，平均每年的减排效应值为 365.30×10t。局部来看，东莞、中山、河源、广州的政策年度净效应值分别为 6169.79×10t、26600.17×10t、17081.34×10t、9393.36×10t。（3）碳普惠政策通过提升城市创新能力和促进节电减排，抑制了对居民碳排放量的影响，具有较好的减排效果，而试点政策中绿色低碳出行的促进作用发挥的中介效应不显著。最后，根据研究结论提出了相关建议。
