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基于 SEER 和外部验证队列构建术前化疗后结直肠癌伴肝转移的预后模型: 一项研究。

Constructing a prognostic model for colorectal cancer with synchronous liver metastases after preoperative chemotherapy: a study based on SEER and an external validation cohort.

机构信息

Department of Oncology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.

Department of Medical Oncology, Department of Cancer Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Clin Transl Oncol. 2024 Dec;26(12):3169-3190. doi: 10.1007/s12094-024-03513-5. Epub 2024 Jun 4.


DOI:10.1007/s12094-024-03513-5
PMID:38834909
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11564222/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The combination of preoperative chemotherapy and surgical treatment has been shown to significantly enhance the prognosis of colorectal cancer with liver metastases (CRLM) patients. Nevertheless, as a result of variations in clinicopathological parameters, the prognosis of this particular group of patients differs considerably. This study aimed to develop and evaluate Cox proportional risk regression model and competing risk regression model using two patient cohorts. The goal was to provide a more precise and personalized prognostic evaluation system. METHODS: We collected information on individuals who had a pathological diagnosis of colorectal cancer between 2000 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database. We obtained data from patients who underwent pathological diagnosis of colorectal cancer and got comprehensive therapy at the hospital between January 1, 2010, and June 1, 2022. The SEER data collected after screening according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria were separated into two cohorts: a training cohort (training cohort) and an internal validation cohort (internal validation cohort), using a random 1:1 split. Subgroup Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analyses were conducted on each of the three groups. The data that received following screening from the hospital were designated as the external validation cohort. The subsequent variables were chosen for additional examination: age, gender, marital status, race, tumor site, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen level, tumor size, T stage, N stage, pathological grade, number of tumor deposits, perineural invasion, number of regional lymph nodes examined, and number of positive regional lymph nodes. The primary endpoint was median overall survival (mOS). In the training cohort, we conducted univariate Cox regression analysis and utilized a stepwise regression approach, employing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to select variables and create Cox proportional risk regression models. We evaluated the accuracy of the model using calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and area under curve (AUC). The effectiveness of the models was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). To evaluate the non-cancer-related outcomes, we analyzed variables that had significant impacts using subgroup cumulative incidence function (CIF) and Gray's test. These analyses were used to create competing risk regression models. Nomograms of the two models were constructed separately and prognostic predictions were made for the same patients in SEER database. RESULTS: This study comprised a total of 735 individuals. The mOS of the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and QDU cohort was 55.00 months (95%CI 46.97-63.03), 48.00 months (95%CI 40.65-55.35), and 68.00 months (95%CI 54.91-81.08), respectively. The multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, N stage, presence of perineural infiltration, number of tumor deposits and number of positive regional lymph nodes were identified as independent prognostic risk variables (p < 0.05). In comparison to the conventional TNM staging model, the Cox proportional risk regression model exhibited a higher C-index. After controlling for competing risk events, age, N stage, presence of perineural infiltration, number of tumor deposits, number of regional lymph nodes examined, and number of positive regional lymph nodes were independent predictors of the risk of cancer-specific mortality (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: We have developed a prognostic model to predict the survival of patients with synchronous CRLM who undergo preoperative chemotherapy and surgery. This model has been tested internally and externally, confirming its accuracy and reliability.

摘要

背景:术前化疗和手术治疗的联合应用已显著改善了结直肠癌伴肝转移(CRLM)患者的预后。然而,由于临床病理参数的差异,该特定患者群体的预后存在显著差异。本研究旨在通过两个患者队列开发和评估 Cox 比例风险回归模型和竞争风险回归模型,以提供更精确和个性化的预后评估系统。

方法:我们从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中收集了 2000 年至 2019 年间患有结直肠癌病理诊断的个体信息。我们从于 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 6 月 1 日在医院接受结直肠癌病理诊断和综合治疗的患者中获取数据。根据纳入和排除标准筛选后的 SEER 数据被分为两个队列:训练队列(训练队列)和内部验证队列(内部验证队列),采用随机 1:1 分割。对三个组分别进行亚组 Kaplan-Meier(K-M)生存分析。从医院获得的经过筛选的数据被指定为外部验证队列。随后选择了以下变量进行进一步检查:年龄、性别、婚姻状况、种族、肿瘤部位、术前癌胚抗原水平、肿瘤大小、T 分期、N 分期、病理分级、肿瘤沉积物数量、神经周围浸润、检查的区域淋巴结数量和阳性区域淋巴结数量。主要终点是中位总生存期(mOS)。在训练队列中,我们进行了单因素 Cox 回归分析,并采用逐步回归方法,使用赤池信息量准则(AIC)选择变量并创建 Cox 比例风险回归模型。我们使用校准曲线、接收器操作特征曲线(ROC)和曲线下面积(AUC)评估模型的准确性。使用决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的有效性。为了评估非癌症相关结局,我们使用亚组累积发生率函数(CIF)和 Gray 检验分析了具有显著影响的变量。这些分析用于创建竞争风险回归模型。分别构建了两个模型的列线图,并对 SEER 数据库中的相同患者进行了预后预测。

结果:本研究共纳入 735 人。训练队列、内部验证队列和 QDU 队列的 mOS 分别为 55.00 个月(95%CI 46.97-63.03)、48.00 个月(95%CI 40.65-55.35)和 68.00 个月(95%CI 54.91-81.08)。多因素 Cox 回归分析显示,年龄、N 分期、神经周围浸润、肿瘤沉积物数量和阳性区域淋巴结数量是独立的预后风险因素(p<0.05)。与传统的 TNM 分期模型相比,Cox 比例风险回归模型具有更高的 C 指数。在控制竞争风险事件后,年龄、N 分期、神经周围浸润、肿瘤沉积物数量、检查的区域淋巴结数量和阳性区域淋巴结数量是癌症特异性死亡率的独立预测因素(p<0.05)。

结论:我们已经开发了一种预测接受术前化疗和手术的同步 CRLM 患者生存的预后模型。该模型已经进行了内部和外部验证,证实了其准确性和可靠性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/b231bbfa00d7/12094_2024_3513_Fig5a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/ed1c8d2b7a23/12094_2024_3513_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/f05353608ff5/12094_2024_3513_Fig2a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/cb7c88cfbae5/12094_2024_3513_Fig3a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/4441024954c5/12094_2024_3513_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/b231bbfa00d7/12094_2024_3513_Fig5a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/ed1c8d2b7a23/12094_2024_3513_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/f05353608ff5/12094_2024_3513_Fig2a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/cb7c88cfbae5/12094_2024_3513_Fig3a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/4441024954c5/12094_2024_3513_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e86d/11564222/b231bbfa00d7/12094_2024_3513_Fig5a_HTML.jpg

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引用本文的文献

[1]
A predictive nomogram for predicting liver metastasis in early-onset colon cancer: a population-based study.

Transl Cancer Res. 2025-1-31

[2]
Development of prediction models for liver metastasis in colorectal cancer based on machine learning: a population-level study.

Transl Cancer Res. 2024-11-30

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