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基于人群的回顾性研究:建立和验证预测泌尿生殖系统神经内分泌癌患者生存的列线图。

Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival of neuroendocrine carcinoma in genitourinary system: A population-based retrospective study.

机构信息

Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Tongji Shanxi Hospital, Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.

Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Jun 5;19(6):e0303440. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303440. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) is a rare yet potentially perilous neoplasm. The objective of this study was to develop prognostic models for the survival of NEC patients in the genitourinary system and subsequently validate these models. A total of 7125 neuroendocrine neoplasm (NEN) patients were extracted. Comparison of survival in patients with different types of NEN before and after propensity score-matching (PSM). A total of 3057 patients with NEC, whose information was complete, were extracted. The NEC influencing factors were chosen through the utilization of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model (LASSO) and the Fine & Gary model (FGM). Furthermore, nomograms were built. To validate the accuracy of the prediction, the efficiency was verified using bootstrap self-sampling techniques and receiver operating characteristic curves. LASSO and FGM were utilized to construct three models. Confirmation of validation was achieved by conducting analyses of the area under the curve and decision curve. Moreover, the FGS (DSS analysis using FGM) model produced higher net benefits. To maximize the advantages for patients, the FGS model disregarded the influence of additional occurrences. Patients are expected to experience advantages in terms of treatment options and survival assessment through the utilization of these models.

摘要

神经内分泌癌(NEC)是一种罕见但潜在危险的肿瘤。本研究的目的是为泌尿系统 NEC 患者的生存建立预测模型,并对这些模型进行验证。共提取了 7125 例神经内分泌肿瘤(NEN)患者。比较了不同类型 NEN 患者在倾向评分匹配(PSM)前后的生存情况。提取了 3057 例 NEC 患者,信息完整。通过最小绝对值收缩和选择算子回归模型(LASSO)和 Fine & Gary 模型(FGM)选择 NEC 的影响因素。此外,还构建了列线图。为了验证预测的准确性,使用自抽样技术和接收器工作特征曲线验证了效率。LASSO 和 FGM 用于构建三个模型。通过分析曲线下面积和决策曲线对验证进行了确认。此外,FGS(使用 FGM 的 DSS 分析)模型产生了更高的净收益。为了最大限度地为患者带来优势,FGS 模型忽略了其他发生情况的影响。通过使用这些模型,患者有望在治疗选择和生存评估方面获得优势。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f316/11152281/3287fec9a890/pone.0303440.g001.jpg

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