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随时间推移的本地疟疾病例驱动因素:中欧现状是否预示着非洲未来?

Drivers of autochthonous malaria cases over time: could the Central European present the African future?

机构信息

Acrida Conservational Research L.P., Deák F. St. 7., Tapolca, 8300, Hungary.

出版信息

Malar J. 2024 Jun 10;23(1):181. doi: 10.1186/s12936-024-05004-y.


DOI:10.1186/s12936-024-05004-y
PMID:38858778
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11163750/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Results of spatial and temporal comparison of malaria hotspots and coldspots could improve the health measures of malaria control and eradication strategies. The study aimed to reveal the spatially and temporally independent correlations between the potentially most effective background variables and the number of autochthonous malaria cases. METHODS: Relationships between malaria cases and background variables were studied in 2 km × 2 km sized quadrates (10 Central European and 10 African). In addition to the current habitat structure of the African sites, annual precipitation, and annual mean temperature, data of the above parameters detected in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and currently in the Central European sites were included in the analyses (n = 40). Mann-Whitney tests, Principal Component Analysis, and Generalized Linear Models were used for the examinations. RESULTS: In addition to the apparent significant positive correlation of malaria cases with annual rainfall and mean temperature, several correlations were found for habitat parameters. The cover of marshlands in the 19th-century habitat structure of Central European quadrates was considerably the same as in the recent African ones. The extent of rural residential areas was significantly smaller in the 19th-century habitat structure of Central European quadrats than in present-day African ones. According to the revealed correlations, the surface cover of rural residential areas is the main driver of the number of autochthonous malaria cases that we can directly impact. CONCLUSIONS: The study confirmed with historical comparison that not only the annual rainfall and mean temperature, the cover of marshlands and other habitats with breeding sites, but also the elements of the rural human environment play a significant role in the high number of autochthonous malaria cases, probably through the concentration and enhancing sites for vector mosquitoes. The latter confirms that a rapid urbanization process could reduce malaria cases in the most infected areas of Africa. Until the latter happens, extensive biological control of Anopheles larvae and chemical control (both outdoor and indoor) of their imagoes, further mosquito nets, repellents, and carbon dioxide traps will need to be applied more widely in the most heavily infested areas.

摘要

背景:疟疾热点和冷点的时空比较结果可以改进疟疾控制和消除策略的卫生措施。本研究旨在揭示潜在最有效背景变量与本地疟疾病例数量之间存在空间和时间上独立的相关性。

方法:在 2km×2km 的正方形区域(10 个欧洲中部和 10 个非洲)中研究了疟疾病例与背景变量之间的关系。除了非洲地点当前的栖息地结构外,还包括在 19 世纪和 20 世纪以及目前在欧洲中部地点检测到的年降水量和年平均温度的数据(n=40)。使用 Mann-Whitney 检验、主成分分析和广义线性模型进行检验。

结果:除了明显与年降雨量和平均温度呈正相关外,还发现了几个与栖息地参数相关的相关性。欧洲中部正方形区域 19 世纪栖息地结构中的沼泽地覆盖率与最近的非洲地区非常相似。欧洲中部正方形区域 19 世纪栖息地结构中的农村居住面积明显小于当今非洲地区。根据发现的相关性,农村居住面积的地表覆盖率是我们可以直接影响的本地疟疾病例数量的主要驱动因素。

结论:本研究通过历史比较证实,不仅年降雨量和平均温度、沼泽地和其他有滋生地的栖息地覆盖范围,而且农村人类环境的要素在本地疟疾病例数量高的情况下也起着重要作用,可能是通过集中和增强媒介蚊子的滋生地。后者证实,快速的城市化进程可能会减少非洲受感染最严重地区的疟疾病例。在这一情况发生之前,需要在受感染最严重的地区更广泛地应用广泛的疟蚊幼虫生物控制和化学控制(室外和室内)、进一步的蚊帐、驱虫剂和二氧化碳诱捕器。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/155471aeaf37/12936_2024_5004_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/158eb23d14a5/12936_2024_5004_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/ac6186590c19/12936_2024_5004_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/01dd458cf7f6/12936_2024_5004_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/52d0b8c87627/12936_2024_5004_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/732fbd64e6d1/12936_2024_5004_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/155471aeaf37/12936_2024_5004_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/158eb23d14a5/12936_2024_5004_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/ac6186590c19/12936_2024_5004_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/01dd458cf7f6/12936_2024_5004_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/52d0b8c87627/12936_2024_5004_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/732fbd64e6d1/12936_2024_5004_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa8/11163750/155471aeaf37/12936_2024_5004_Fig6_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Ecological Predictors of Human Malaria Risk During Different Phases of the Elimination: An Analysis of Historical Data.

Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2022-1

[2]
An urban-to-rural continuum of malaria risk: new analytic approaches characterize patterns in Malawi.

Malar J. 2021-10-24

[3]
Malaria incidence and mortality in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of routine surveillance data.

Malar J. 2021-5-24

[4]
Indoor and outdoor malaria transmission in two ecological settings in rural Mali: implications for vector control.

Malar J. 2021-3-4

[5]
Malaria and COVID-19: unmasking their ties.

Malar J. 2020-12-23

[6]
The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria elimination.

Parasite Epidemiol Control. 2020-11

[7]
Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of malaria risk in Rwanda.

PLoS One. 2020-9-10

[8]
Re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area (Moscow region, Russia): a geographic investigation.

Malar J. 2020-3-18

[9]
Spatio-temporal analysis of association between incidence of malaria and environmental predictors of malaria transmission in Nigeria.

Sci Rep. 2019-11-25

[10]
Environmental and meteorological factors linked to malaria transmission around large dams at three ecological settings in Ethiopia.

Malar J. 2019-2-26

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