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商业周期与医疗保健就业。

Business cycles and healthcare employment.

机构信息

Department of Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA.

Department of Economics, Lehigh University, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, USA.

出版信息

Health Econ. 2024 Sep;33(9):2123-2161. doi: 10.1002/hec.4866. Epub 2024 Jun 11.

Abstract

Is healthcare employment recession-proof? We examine the long-standing hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the business cycle. We explicitly distinguish between negative aggregate demand and supply shocks in studying how healthcare employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the exogenous shock triggering the recession. First, aggregate healthcare employment responds procyclically during demand-induced recessions but remains stable during supply-induced recessions. Second, healthcare utilization drops significantly during demand-induced recessions, explaining the decline in healthcare employment during these periods. Finally, there is significant heterogeneity in the employment responses of the healthcare sub-sectors. While healthcare employment in most sub-sectors responds procyclically during recessions caused by both negative demand and supply shocks, it responds countercyclically in nursing-dominant sectors. Importantly, by isolating the recessionary impact of negative aggregate demand shocks from supply shocks on healthcare employment, we provide new empirical evidence that healthcare employment, in general, is not recession-proof.

摘要

医疗保健就业是否能免受经济衰退影响?我们检验了一个长期存在的假设,即医疗保健就业在商业周期中是稳定的。我们在研究医疗保健就业对经济衰退的反应时,明确区分了负向总需求和供给冲击,并表明这种反应在很大程度上取决于引发衰退的外生冲击的类型。首先,在需求引发的衰退期间,总医疗保健就业呈顺周期性,但在供给引发的衰退期间保持稳定。其次,在需求引发的衰退期间,医疗保健利用率显著下降,这解释了这些时期医疗保健就业的下降。最后,医疗保健各子行业的就业反应存在显著的异质性。虽然在由负向总需求和供给冲击引起的衰退期间,大多数子行业的医疗保健就业呈顺周期性,但在以护理为主导的行业中则呈逆周期性。重要的是,通过将总需求冲击对医疗保健就业的衰退影响与供给冲击隔离开来,我们提供了新的经验证据,表明医疗保健就业总体上并非免受经济衰退影响。

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