Adelman Ron A, Nwanze Chukwuemeka C
Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Trans Am Ophthalmol Soc. 2011 Dec;109:49-65.
To develop a help-wanted index (HWI) to measure trends in marketplace demand for ophthalmologists, to identify the economic drivers of demand, and to determine the impact of economic recessions on the ophthalmology job market.
Review of physician recruitment advertisements appearing in the journals Ophthalmology, American Journal of Ophthalmology, and Archives of Ophthalmology from January 1980 through June 2006.
Over the 26-year study period a consistent increase in the demand for subspecialists (31% of HWI in 1980 to 80% in 2005) was noted. There was also an increase in the demand for academic ophthalmologists. The need for academic ophthalmologists seems to be correlated with national research expenditure and stock market gains (P = .00191), whereas demand for private practice ophthalmologists seems to be correlated with the national economic well-being, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) (P < .001). Residency applicants (P = .0128) and fellowship applicants (P = .0198) respond to marketplace demand. During the recessions, the demand for ophthalmologists fell 2 to 3 years after the economic downturn.
Over a 26-year period, HWI data suggest an increased need for subspecialists and academic ophthalmologists. The ophthalmic community has been quick to respond to marketplace demand. National research expenditure, stock market gains, GDP, and discretionary health care expenditure have been associated with the ophthalmology job market. These factors tend to decline with economic recessions. Historically, the demand for ophthalmologists has declined 2 to 3 years following a recession, which may mean lower demand in the near future, given the recent recession.
制定一个招聘需求指数（HWI），以衡量眼科医生市场需求的趋势，确定需求的经济驱动因素，并确定经济衰退对眼科就业市场的影响。
回顾1980年1月至2006年6月发表在《眼科学》《美国眼科学杂志》和《眼科学文献》上的医生招聘广告。
在26年的研究期内，观察到对亚专科医生的需求持续增加（从1980年HWI的31%增至2005年的80%）。对学术眼科医生的需求也有所增加。对学术眼科医生的需求似乎与国家研究支出和股市收益相关（P = 0.00191），而对私人执业眼科医生的需求似乎与以国内生产总值（GDP）衡量的国家经济状况相关（P < 0.001）。住院医师申请人（P = 0.0128）和研究员申请人（P = 0.0198）会对市场需求做出反应。在经济衰退期间，经济衰退2至3年后对眼科医生的需求下降。
在26年的时间里，HWI数据表明对亚专科医生和学术眼科医生的需求增加。眼科界对市场需求反应迅速。国家研究支出、股市收益、GDP和可自由支配的医疗保健支出与眼科就业市场相关。这些因素往往会随着经济衰退而下降。从历史上看，经济衰退后2至3年对眼科医生的需求会下降，鉴于最近的经济衰退，这可能意味着近期需求会降低。
