Spatial distribution of the range-expanding species Seriola fasciata (Bloch, 1793) in Mediterranean Sea: From past to future.

The Mediterranean Sea is a highly susceptible area to climate change, that facilitates the introduction of warm-affinity exotic species, contributing to the expansion of their biogeographical range. One such thermophilic species is the Atlantic fish Seriola fasciata, which has colonised this area over the past three decades. The present study analyzed its spatial distribution in the Mediterranean Sea to identify aggregation areas and dynamics over time, and the environmental predictors influencing its presence. The utilized statistical tools and the Species Distribution Model proved effective in identifying specific spatial and temporal distribution patterns, as well as discerning some environmental variables influencing the species presence, with distinctions recorded between juveniles and adults. S. fasciata was observed to be established in the central Mediterranean, with Fishing Aggregating Devices potentially influencing its presence, particularly of juveniles. Sea floor temperature and habitats emerged as the primary factors driving species distribution. An aggregation area in the Levant Sea, conducive mainly for the adults, was identified and is expected to intensify over time. These findings contribute valuable insights into a relatively understudied species and its presence in the Mediterranean Sea, where climate change is affecting marine biodiversity.