Tetereva Alina, Pat Narun
Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Elife. 2024 Jun 13;12:RP87297. doi: 10.7554/eLife.87297.
One well-known biomarker candidate that supposedly helps capture fluid cognition is Brain Age, or a predicted value based on machine-learning models built to predict chronological age from brain MRI. To formally evaluate the utility of Brain Age for capturing fluid cognition, we built 26 age-prediction models for Brain Age based on different combinations of MRI modalities, using the Human Connectome Project in Aging (n=504, 36-100 years old). First, based on commonality analyses, we found a large overlap between Brain Age and chronological age: Brain Age could uniquely add only around 1.6% in explaining variation in fluid cognition over and above chronological age. Second, the age-prediction models that performed better at predicting chronological age did NOT necessarily create better Brain Age for capturing fluid cognition over and above chronological age. Instead, better-performing age-prediction models created Brain Age that overlapped larger with chronological age, up to around 29% out of 32%, in explaining fluid cognition. Third, Brain Age missed around 11% of the total variation in fluid cognition that could have been explained by the brain variation. That is, directly predicting fluid cognition from brain MRI data (instead of relying on Brain Age and chronological age) could lead to around a 1/3-time improvement of the total variation explained. Accordingly, we demonstrated the limited utility of Brain Age as a biomarker for fluid cognition and made some suggestions to ensure the utility of Brain Age in explaining fluid cognition and other phenotypes of interest.
一种据称有助于捕捉流体认知能力的著名生物标志物候选指标是脑龄,即基于为从脑部磁共振成像(MRI)预测实际年龄而构建的机器学习模型得出的预测值。为了正式评估脑龄在捕捉流体认知能力方面的效用,我们利用老龄化人类连接组计划(样本量n = 504,年龄在36至100岁之间),基于MRI模态的不同组合构建了26个脑龄年龄预测模型。首先,基于共性分析,我们发现脑龄与实际年龄之间存在很大重叠:脑龄在解释流体认知能力变化方面,相对于实际年龄而言,仅能独特地额外增加约1.6%的解释力。其次,在预测实际年龄方面表现较好的年龄预测模型,在捕捉流体认知能力(相对于实际年龄)方面,并不一定能产生更好的脑龄。相反,表现更好的年龄预测模型所生成的脑龄与实际年龄的重叠度更高,在解释流体认知能力方面,重叠度高达32%中的约29%。第三,脑龄遗漏了约11%的流体认知能力总变异,而这些变异本可由大脑变异来解释。也就是说,直接从脑部MRI数据预测流体认知能力(而非依赖脑龄和实际年龄)可能会使可解释的总变异提高约三分之一。因此,我们证明了脑龄作为流体认知能力生物标志物的效用有限,并提出了一些建议,以确保脑龄在解释流体认知能力和其他相关表型方面的效用。