Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae.

Studying the ecological niches of species and their responses to climate change can provide better conservation strategies for these species. Myrothamnaceae is endemic to Africa, comprising only two species that belong to ( and ). These closely related species exhibit allopatric distributions, positioning them as ideal materials for studying the species ecological adaptation. This study explores the ecological niche differentiation between and and their response capabilities to future climate change. The results indicate that and have undergone niche differentiation. The main drivers of niche differences are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) for , precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) for . demonstrated a stronger adaptation to environments characterized by lower precipitation, relatively lower temperatures, and greater annual temperature variations compared to . Under future climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2081-2100 years), the results show that approximately 85% of the total suitable habitat for will be lost, with an 85% reduction in high-suitability areas and almost complete loss of the original mid-low suitability areas. Concurrently, about 29% of the total suitable habitat for will be lost, with a 34% reduction in high suitability areas and roughly 60% of the original mid-low suitability areas becoming unsuitable. This suggests that will face greater threats under future climate change. This study contributes novel insight into niche differentiation in Myrothamnaceae and provides useful information for the conservation of this distinctive African lineage.