Yang Jiongming, Fu Zhihao, Xiao Keyan, Dong Hongjin, Zhou Yadong, Zhan Qinghua
School of Life Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China.
Hubei Xiuhu Botanical Garden, Xiaogan 432500, China.
Plants (Basel). 2023 Dec 10;12(24):4124. doi: 10.3390/plants12244124.
Climate change is a crucial factor impacting the geographical distribution of plants and potentially increases the risk of invasion for certain species, especially for aquatic plants dispersed by water flow. Here, we combined six algorithms provided by the biomod2 platform to predict the changes in global climate-suitable areas for five species of (Hydrocharitaceae) (, , , , and ) under two current and future carbon emission scenarios. Our results show that , , and had a wide range of suitable areas and a high risk of invasion, while and had relatively narrow suitable areas. In the future climate scenario, the species of may gain a wider habitat area, with Northern Hemisphere species showing a trend of migration to higher latitudes and the change in tropical species being more complex. The high-carbon-emission scenario led to greater changes in the habitat area of . Therefore, we recommend strengthening the monitoring and reporting of high-risk species and taking effective measures to control the invasion of species.
气候变化是影响植物地理分布的关键因素,可能会增加某些物种的入侵风险,特别是对于靠水流传播的水生植物。在此,我们结合了biomod2平台提供的六种算法,来预测在当前和未来两种碳排放情景下,水鳖科五种植物(黑藻、伊乐藻、苦草、水蕴草和水盾草)全球气候适宜区的变化。我们的结果表明,黑藻、伊乐藻和苦草具有广泛的适宜区和较高的入侵风险,而水蕴草和水盾草的适宜区相对较窄。在未来气候情景下,黑藻属物种可能会获得更广阔的栖息地,北半球物种呈现向更高纬度迁移的趋势,热带物种的变化则更为复杂。高碳排放情景导致黑藻属植物栖息地面积变化更大。因此,我们建议加强对高风险物种的监测和报告,并采取有效措施控制黑藻属物种的入侵。