Climate mitigation potential of cover crops in the United States is regionally concentrated and lower than previous estimates.

Widespread adoption of regenerative agriculture practices is an integral part of the US plan to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. National incentives have particularly increased for the adoption of cover crops (CCs), which have presumably large carbon (C) sequestration potential. However, assessments of national CC climate benefits have not fully considered regional variability, changing C sequestration rates over time, and potential NO trade-offs. Using the DayCent soil biogeochemical model and current national survey data, we estimate CC climate change mitigation potential to be 39.0 ± 24.1 Mt COe year, which is 45%-65% lower than previous estimates, with large uncertainty attributed to NO impacts. Three-fourths of this climate change mitigation potential is concentrated in the North Central, Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi regions. Public investment should be focused in these regions to maximize CC climate benefits, but the national contribution of CC to emissions targets may be lower than previously anticipated.