Santostasi Nina Luisa, Bauduin Sarah, Grente Oksana, Gimenez Olivier, Ciucci Paolo
Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Roma, Italy.
CEFE, CNRS, Univ. Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Feb;39(1):e14312. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14312. Epub 2024 Jun 18.
Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long-term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf-dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision-making on management of wolf-dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real-world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats.
狼与狗之间的渐渗杂交是一个保护问题，因为其可能产生有害的长期进化后果。欧洲立法要求通过有效管理来减轻狼与狗的杂交现象。我们开发了一个基于个体的模型（IBM）来模拟灰狼的生命周期，该模型纳入了影响杂交率的狼的社会行为方面（例如，一个/两个繁殖者死亡后狼群的解散），目的是为狼与狗杂交的管理决策提供信息。我们通过预测不同配偶选择和移民情景下当地狼种群的杂交动态来应用我们的模型，并对比了去除混血个体与对其进行绝育并放归的结果。在几种情景中，缺乏管理导致了完全混合，而积极的管理干预有效地减少了狼种群中的混合现象。然而，管理效果在很大程度上取决于配偶选择以及迁入狼种群的个体数量和混合程度。纳入影响亲本和混血个体的人为死亡率（例如偷猎）增加了狼群解散的可能性，从而增加了与狗或混血个体杂交的可能性，并在所有模拟情景中提高了杂交和渐渗率。认识到需要进一步完善模型（适当的参数化、全面的敏感性分析和可靠的模型验证）以生成适用于现实情景的管理建议，我们对我们模型作为一种有价值的保护工具的潜力保持信心，该工具可应用于面临类似威胁的各种情况和物种。
