Heydari Mahdiyeh, Yarifard Khadijeh, Tajvar Maryam
Department of Health Management, Policy and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Iran J Public Health. 2024 Feb;53(2):472-481. doi: 10.18502/ijph.v53i2.14932.
Youth is undeniably the most important resource of any country. This study aimed to determine the trend of mortality rate and the cause of death, based on the ICD-10, among young people in Iran and examines significance of the changes in any cause during the last three decades.
The present study is a secondary analysis of data, which examines the trend of death rate and its causes among young adult, aged 15-24 yr, longitudinally during 1990-2019. The data source was the GBD web-site. Linear Regression analysis was used to measure the slope of changes in mortality rates and causes of death during the period, where "time" was the independent variable and "mortality rate" and "causes of mortality" were dependent variables.
The death rate of young people declined by 56% during the period, equal to an average of 2.17 units per year. The most common cause of death has been injuries (69%), then NCDs (25%), and finally communicable diseases (6%). However, death due to injuries (except SUD), communicable diseases (except HIV), and NCDs (except musculoskeletal disorders) declined significantly by 1.43, 0.3, and 0.09 units per year, over 30 yr respectively.
Examining past trends in death rates and causes strengthens insights into the state and future trends in health and death-related indicators, which are crucial for policy-making, especially in developing countries with limited resources.
青年无疑是任何国家最重要的资源。本研究旨在根据国际疾病分类第十版（ICD - 10）确定伊朗年轻人的死亡率趋势和死因，并探讨过去三十年中任何原因导致的变化的意义。
本研究是对数据的二次分析，纵向研究了1990 - 2019年期间15 - 24岁青年成年人的死亡率趋势及其原因。数据来源是全球疾病负担（GBD）网站。采用线性回归分析来测量该时期死亡率和死因变化的斜率，其中“时间”是自变量，“死亡率”和“死亡原因”是因变量。
在此期间，年轻人的死亡率下降了56%，平均每年下降2.17个单位。最常见的死因是伤害（69%），其次是非传染性疾病（25%），最后是传染病（6%）。然而，在30年期间，因伤害（药物使用障碍除外）、传染病（艾滋病毒除外）和非传染性疾病（肌肉骨骼疾病除外）导致的死亡分别显著下降，每年下降1.43、0.3和0.09个单位。
研究死亡率和死因的过去趋势有助于深入了解健康和与死亡相关指标的现状及未来趋势，这对政策制定至关重要，尤其是在资源有限的发展中国家。
