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2010年至2019年伊朗跌倒所致发病率和死亡率的时空分析。

A spatiotemporal analysis of incidence and mortality rate due to falls in Iran from 2010 to 2019.

作者信息

Majdolashrafi Fatemeh, Delpisheh Ali, Halimi Aram, Yeganeh Haniyeh, Jorjani Goljamal, Panahi Mohammad Hossein

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Research Institute for Health Sciences and Environment, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2025 May 15;25(1):1791. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22845-7.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-025-22845-7
PMID:40375226
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12080263/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

As the population ages, the incidence of falls and related injuries has become increasingly prominent, posing significant challenges to healthcare systems and negatively affecting the quality of life of the elderly. This study investigated the trend and spatiotemporal analysis of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of falls in Iran, specifically from 2010 to 2019.

METHODS

An ecological study was conducted based on data from the IHME site for ten years, from 2010 to 2019. The annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 individuals due to falls were calculated. A spatiotemporal statistical analysis was used to determine the geographical and temporal distribution.

FINDINGS

Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates have decreased over ten years. Chahar Mahaal and Bakhtiari, Semnan, and Qazvin have reported the highest prevalence in both sexes, men and women. The death rate in Qazvin province for both sexes and men and Alborz province for women ranks first. According to the hotspot analysis results, Fars province has the highest incidence rate, and Kermanshah province has the highest death rate.

CONCLUSION

Population aging in Iran is a health-treatment challenge. Falling is one of the consequences of this challenge. The southern and western provinces allocate the highest age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Ensuring equitable access to health care services for the target population is recommended to be a priority for politicians.

摘要

背景

随着人口老龄化，跌倒及相关伤害的发生率日益突出，给医疗系统带来重大挑战，并对老年人的生活质量产生负面影响。本研究调查了伊朗2010年至2019年期间跌倒的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率的趋势及时空分析。

方法

基于2010年至2019年十年间来自健康指标与评估研究所（IHME）网站的数据进行了一项生态学研究。计算了每10万人因跌倒导致的年度年龄标准化发病率和死亡率。采用时空统计分析来确定地理和时间分布。

研究结果

十年间年龄标准化发病率和死亡率有所下降。恰哈尔马哈勒-巴赫蒂亚里省、塞姆南省和加兹温省在男性和女性中均报告了最高患病率。加兹温省男女以及阿尔伯兹省女性的死亡率排名第一。根据热点分析结果，法尔斯省发病率最高，克尔曼沙阿省死亡率最高。

结论

伊朗的人口老龄化是一个健康治疗挑战。跌倒是这一挑战的后果之一。南部和西部省份的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率最高。建议确保目标人群公平获得医疗保健服务应成为政治家的优先事项。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/d9f00203a041/12889_2025_22845_Fig12_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/53fef38ffb05/12889_2025_22845_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/221f98e7ea45/12889_2025_22845_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/35727ad4cfa8/12889_2025_22845_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/90b38afced1f/12889_2025_22845_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/3bab14924375/12889_2025_22845_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/cee641121463/12889_2025_22845_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/e4e0ccab1d46/12889_2025_22845_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee2e/12080263/d9f00203a041/12889_2025_22845_Fig12_HTML.jpg

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