Armstrong Joshua T, Bulluck Lesley P, Davidson Andrew T, Stunkle Charles Ryland, Vonesh James R
Department of Integrative Life Sciences Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond Virginia USA.
Center for Environmental Studies Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond Virginia USA.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Jun 18;14(6):e11558. doi: 10.1002/ece3.11558. eCollection 2024 Jun.
Understanding the response of species to global change requires disentangling the drivers of their distributions across landscapes. Colonization and extinction processes, shaped by the interplay of landscape-level and local patch-level factors, are key determinants of these distributions. However, disentangling the influence of these factors, when larger-scale processes manifest at local scales, remains a challenge. We addressed this challenge by investigating the colonization and extinction dynamics of the aquatic plant, , in a complex riverine rock pool system. This system, with hundreds of rock pools experiencing varying flooding frequencies, provided a natural laboratory to examine how a single landscape-level disturbance can differentially impact colonization and extinction depending on local patch characteristics to shape species distributions. Using 5 years of data across over 500 sites and more than 5000 surveys, we employed dynamic occupancy models to model colonization, extinction, and changes in patch occupancy while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results revealed that larger, infrequently flooded pools closer to the river were more likely to be colonized. In contrast, local extinction of Hydrilla was more likely in smaller pools closer to the river that flooded frequently. These findings underscore the importance of considering context-dependence in species distribution models. The same landscape-level disturbance (flooding) had opposing effects on colonization and extinction, with the direction and magnitude of these effects varying with local patch characteristics. Our study highlights the need for integrating local and landscape-level factors, and considering how larger-scale processes play out at the patch level, to understand the complex dynamics that shape species distributions.
了解物种对全球变化的响应需要理清影响其在景观中分布的驱动因素。由景观尺度和局部斑块尺度因素相互作用所塑造的定殖和灭绝过程，是这些分布的关键决定因素。然而，当更大尺度的过程在局部尺度显现时，理清这些因素的影响仍然是一项挑战。我们通过研究水生植物黑藻在一个复杂的河滨岩石池系统中的定殖和灭绝动态来应对这一挑战。这个系统有数百个经历不同洪水频率的岩石池，提供了一个天然实验室，以研究单一景观尺度的干扰如何根据局部斑块特征对定殖和灭绝产生不同影响，从而塑造物种分布。利用5年时间里在500多个地点进行的5000多次调查所获得的数据，我们采用动态占有模型来模拟定殖、灭绝以及斑块占有情况的变化，同时考虑到不完全检测的因素。我们的结果表明，靠近河流的较大、洪水频率较低的水池更有可能被定殖。相反，黑藻在靠近河流且经常被洪水淹没的较小水池中更有可能出现局部灭绝。这些发现强调了在物种分布模型中考虑背景依赖性的重要性。相同的景观尺度干扰（洪水）对定殖和灭绝产生了相反的影响，且这些影响的方向和程度随局部斑块特征而变化。我们的研究强调，需要整合局部和景观尺度因素，并考虑更大尺度的过程在斑块尺度上是如何发挥作用的，以理解塑造物种分布的复杂动态。
