Zarin Rahat, Khan Yousaf, Ahmad Maryam, Khan Amir, Humphries Usa Wannasingha
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology, Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Swat, KPK, Pakistan.
Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin. 2024 Jun 19:1-23. doi: 10.1080/10255842.2024.2364817.
This paper presents a new nonlinear epidemic model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 that incorporates the effect of double dose vaccination. The model is analyzed using qualitative, stability, and sensitivity analysis techniques to investigate the impact of vaccination on the spread of the virus. We derive the basic reproduction number and perform stability analysis of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The model is also subjected to sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters affecting the disease dynamics. The values of the parameters are estimated with the help of the least square curve fitting tools. Finally, the model is simulated numerically to assess the effectiveness of various control strategies, including vaccination and quarantine, in reducing the spread of the virus. Optimal control techniques are employed to determine the optimal allocation of resources for implementing control measures. Our results suggest that increasing the vaccination coverage, adherence to quarantine measures, and resource allocation are effective strategies for controlling the epidemic. The study provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the pandemic and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating effective control measures.
本文提出了一种新的用于描述严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）传播的非线性流行模型，该模型纳入了双剂量疫苗接种的影响。使用定性、稳定性和敏感性分析技术对该模型进行分析，以研究疫苗接种对病毒传播的影响。我们推导了基本再生数，并对无病平衡点和地方病平衡点进行了稳定性分析。该模型还进行了敏感性分析，以确定影响疾病动态的最具影响力的模型参数。借助最小二乘曲线拟合工具估计参数值。最后，对该模型进行数值模拟，以评估包括疫苗接种和隔离在内的各种控制策略在减少病毒传播方面的有效性。采用最优控制技术来确定实施控制措施的资源最优分配。我们的结果表明，提高疫苗接种覆盖率、遵守隔离措施和资源分配是控制疫情的有效策略。该研究为大流行的动态提供了有价值的见解，并为政策制定者制定有效控制措施提供了指导。
