Universidade de Brasília, School of Health Sciences, Public Health Department - Brasília (DF), Brazil.
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences - Campinas (SP), Brazil.
Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2024 Jun 14;27:e240027. doi: 10.1590/1980-549720240027. eCollection 2024.
To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030.
This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs).
There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p<0.001), followed by an increase between January/2015 and March /2020 (β=0.013; p<0.001). There was a sharp drop in cases in April/2020, with the onset of the pandemic, and acceleration of the increase in cases since then (β=0.025; p<0.001). A projection of 124,245 cases in 2030 was made, with an estimated incidence of 4.64 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants, levels similar to those in the 2000s. The Sarima model proved to be robust, with error of 4.1% when removing the pandemic period.
The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.
评估 2001 年至 2022 年期间巴西的结核病发病率，并预测 2030 年之前的每月发病率预测值。
这是一项基于传染病报告系统中每月结核病记录和巴西人口官方预测的时间序列研究。使用分段线性回归评估 2001 年至 2022 年期间的结核病每月发病率，以识别趋势变化。使用季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型预测 2023 年至 2030 年的每月发病率，这是实现可持续发展目标的截止日期。
发病率从 2001 年 1 月至 2014 年 12 月（4.60 至 3.19 例/月/10 万居民；β=-0.005；p<0.001）下降，随后在 2015 年 1 月至 2020 年 3 月期间上升（β=0.013；p<0.001）。2020 年 4 月，随着大流行的爆发，病例急剧下降，并从那时起加速上升（β=0.025；p<0.001）。预计 2030 年将有 124245 例病例，估计发病率为 4.64 例/月/10 万居民，与 2000 年代相似。SARIMA 模型被证明是稳健的，去除大流行时期后误差为 4.1%。
从 2015 年开始，结核病病例呈下降趋势发生逆转，这一时期是经济危机时期，并且在记录减少时也受到了大流行的影响。SARIMA 模型可以成为流行病学监测的有用预测工具。需要增加对预防和控制的投资，以减少结核病的发生，符合可持续发展目标。
