Emerg Infect Dis. 2022 Apr;28(4):820-827. doi: 10.3201/eid2804.212014.
We analyzed a pharmacy dataset to assess the 20% decline in tuberculosis (TB) cases reported to the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) during the coronavirus disease pandemic in 2020 compared with the 2016-2019 average. We examined the correlation between TB medication dispensing data to TB case counts in NTSS and used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict expected 2020 counts. Trends in the TB medication data were correlated with trends in NTSS data during 2006-2019. There were fewer prescriptions and cases in 2020 than would be expected on the basis of previous trends. This decrease was particularly large during April-May 2020. These data are consistent with NTSS data, suggesting that underreporting is not occurring but not ruling out underdiagnosis or actual decline. Understanding the mechanisms behind the 2020 decline in reported TB cases will help TB programs better prepare for postpandemic cases.
我们分析了一个药房数据集,以评估 2020 年冠状病毒病大流行期间向美国国家结核病监测系统 (NTSS) 报告的结核病 (TB) 病例与 2016-2019 年平均水平相比下降了 20%。我们检查了 TB 药物配药数据与 NTSS 中 TB 病例数之间的相关性,并使用季节性自回归综合移动平均模型来预测 2020 年的预期病例数。2006-2019 年期间,TB 药物数据的趋势与 NTSS 数据的趋势相关。2020 年的处方和病例数比之前的趋势预期的要少。2020 年 4 月至 5 月期间下降幅度尤其大。这些数据与 NTSS 数据一致,表明没有发生漏报,但不能排除漏诊或实际下降的可能性。了解 2020 年报告的 TB 病例下降背后的机制将有助于结核病项目更好地为大流行后病例做准备。
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