Stanford University, Department of Biology, Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford, CA, USA.
Stanford University, Department of Biology, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2024 Jun 19;15(1):4838. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-48335-9.
Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Schistosoma are obligate parasites of freshwater Biomphalaria and Bulinus snails, thus controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we used machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of forward-transmitting Biomphalaria hosts throughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined how Biomphalaria habitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change in Biomphalaria distribution-while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies-can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.
血吸虫病是一种由血吸虫寄生虫引起的被忽视的热带病。血吸虫是淡水双壳贝和钉螺的专性寄生虫，因此控制螺种群对于降低传播风险至关重要。由于螺类对环境条件敏感，我们预计它们的分布会受到全球变化的显著影响。在这里，我们使用机器学习、遥感和 30 年的螺类发生记录，绘制了巴西整个地区具有传染性的双壳贝宿主的历史和当前分布地图。我们确定了影响适宜栖息地分布的关键特征，并确定了在过去三十年中，气候和城市化如何改变了双壳贝栖息地。我们的模型表明，气候变化导致了螺宿主范围的广泛变化，而城市和城市周边地区的扩张导致了栖息地适宜性的局部增加。阐明双壳贝分布的变化——同时考虑到从局部案例研究中难以检测到的非线性关系——可以帮助为血吸虫病控制策略提供信息。
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