Tianjin Environmental Meteorological Center, Tianjin, 300074, China.
CMA-NKU Cooperative Laboratory for Atmospheric Environment-Health Research, Tianjin, 300074, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2024 Oct;68(10):2015-2027. doi: 10.1007/s00484-024-02724-3. Epub 2024 Jun 24.
The objective of this study is to explore how changes in weather contribute to an increase in hospital admissions for stroke in summer. We collected 96,509 cases of stroke hospitalization data in Tianjin from 2016 to 2022 summer, along with corresponding meteorological data. The generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model were used to analyze the lag and cumulative effects of temperature on stroke hospitalization. The research results show both the cold effect and the heat effect in summer would increase the risk of hospitalization. The effect of daily maximum temperature on stroke hospitalization was immediate when the temperature was higher, and delayed when the temperature was lower. However, the risk of stroke hospitalization increased more significantly with increasing temperature than with decreasing temperature. In the presence of one or more of the following three weather changes: sharp temperature increase, sharp temperature decrease, continuous high temperature, the daily number of stroke inpatients were higher than the average in the same period. 83% of the Inpatient-heavy events within the study period were caused by a combination of dramatic temperature changes and continuous high temperatures. In 48% of Inpatient-heavy events, continuous high temperature weather above 30℃ for at least 4 consecutive days were observed. And 55% of high temperature weather was accompanied by high humidity. When the daily relative humidity was greater than 70% and the daily maximum temperature was between 26 and 28℃ or more than 34℃, or the daily maximum temperature changes over 10℃ within 48 h, the number of daily inpatients was more than 1.2 times of the average daily inpatients. More attention should be paid to the combined effects of continuous high temperature and sudden temperature changes in summer stroke prevention.
本研究旨在探讨夏季天气变化如何导致中风住院人数增加。我们收集了 2016 年至 2022 年夏季天津 96509 例中风住院数据，以及相应的气象数据。采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型分析温度对中风住院的滞后和累积效应。研究结果表明，夏季的冷效应和热效应都会增加住院风险。当日最高温度较高时，日最高温度对中风住院的影响是即时的，当日最高温度较低时，影响是延迟的。然而，与温度下降相比，温度升高对中风住院的风险增加更为显著。在存在以下三种天气变化之一或多种变化的情况下：温度急剧上升、温度急剧下降、连续高温，中风住院日人数高于同期平均水平。研究期间，83%的住院高峰期事件是由剧烈的温度变化和连续高温共同引起的。在 48%的住院高峰期事件中，观察到至少连续 4 天的 30℃以上持续高温天气。55%的高温天气伴随着高湿度。当日相对湿度大于 70%，日最高温度在 26 到 28℃或以上，或 48 小时内日最高温度变化超过 10℃时，每日住院人数超过平均每日住院人数的 1.2 倍。在夏季预防中风时，应更加关注持续高温和突然温度变化的联合效应。
