Bertolotti Francesco, Roman Sabin
School of Industrial Engineering, LIUC Università Cattaneo, Castellanza, Province of Varese, Italy.
Centre for Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
iScience. 2024 May 27;27(6):110020. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110020. eCollection 2024 Jun 21.
Our society is marked by a tension between short-term objectives, such as economic growth, and long-term sustainability goals, including mitigating resource depletion. In such a competitive setting, it is crucial to ascertain whether a system can maintain long-term viability and, if so, how. This article aims to enhance the understanding of this issue by analyzing how sustainability concerns change over time by means of a game, and the effect of this variation on the final status of a system. Leveraging insights from the game, we implement an agent-based model to elicit the tension between short-term objectives and sustainability, emphasizing the influence of individual actions on the overall system. The simulation results suggest that the likelihood of a collapse is contingent upon the availability of resources and the manner in which information regarding these resources is gathered and utilized. Finally, the paper proposes practical suggestions for managing this kind of system.
我们的社会的特点是短期目标（如经济增长）与长期可持续发展目标（包括缓解资源枯竭）之间存在紧张关系。在这样一个竞争激烈的环境中，确定一个系统是否能够维持长期生存能力以及如何维持长期生存能力至关重要。本文旨在通过一个博弈分析可持续性问题如何随时间变化以及这种变化对系统最终状态的影响，从而增进对这一问题的理解。利用博弈中的见解，我们实施了一个基于主体的模型，以揭示短期目标与可持续性之间的紧张关系，强调个体行为对整个系统的影响。模拟结果表明，系统崩溃的可能性取决于资源的可用性以及有关这些资源的信息的收集和利用方式。最后，本文针对管理这类系统提出了切实可行的建议。
