Schaefer Maximilian, Panagiotoglou Dimitra
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Drug Alcohol Depend Rep. 2024 May 19;11:100242. doi: 10.1016/j.dadr.2024.100242. eCollection 2024 Jun.
In 2017, three brick and mortar supervised consumption sites (SCS) opened in Montreal, Canada. Opponents argued the sites would attract people who use drugs and reduce local real estate prices.
We used interrupted time series and hedonic price models to evaluate the effects of Montreal's SCS on local real estate prices. We linked the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers' housing sales data provided by Centris Inc. with census tract data and gentrification scores. Homes sold within 200 m of the SCS locations between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2021 were included. We adjusted for internal (e.g., number of bed/bathrooms, unit size) and external attributes (e.g., neighbourhood demographics), and included a spatio-temporal lag to account for correlation between sales. For sensitivity analysis we used site-specific dummy variables to better account for unmeasured neighbourhood differences, and repeated analyses using 500 m and 1000 m radii.
We observed a price shock after the opening of the first two SCS in June 2017 (level effect: -10.5%, 95% CI: -19.1%, -1.1%) but prices rose faster month-to-month (trend effect: 1.1%, 95% CI: 0.7%, 1.6%) after implementation. Following the implementation of the third site in November 2017 there was no immediate impact (level effect: 2.4%, 95% CI: -10.4%, 17.0%) but once more prices roses faster (0.9%, 95% CI: 0.4%, 1.5%) thereafter. When we replaced neighbourhood attributes with a site-specific dummy variable, we observed the same pattern. Sales' prices dropped (level effect: -9.6%, 95% CI: -15.0%, -3.8%) but rose faster month-to-month (trend effect: 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.6%, 1.2%) following June 2017's SCS implementations, with no level effect (4.9%, 95% CI: -7.3%, 18.6%) and a positive trend (0.9%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 1.3%) after November 2017's SCS opening. In most 500 m and 1000 m radii models, there were no immediate shocks following SCS opening, however, positive trend effects persisted in all models.
Our models suggest homes sold near SCS may experience a price shock immediately post-implementation, with evidence of market recovery in the months that follow.
2017年，加拿大蒙特利尔开设了三家实体监督消费场所（SCS）。反对者认为这些场所会吸引吸毒者并降低当地房地产价格。
我们使用中断时间序列和享乐价格模型来评估蒙特利尔SCS对当地房地产价格的影响。我们将Centris公司提供的魁北克房地产经纪人专业协会的房屋销售数据与人口普查区数据和绅士化评分联系起来。纳入了2014年1月1日至2021年12月31日期间在SCS场所200米范围内售出的房屋。我们对内部属性（如卧室/浴室数量、单元大小）和外部属性（如社区人口统计数据）进行了调整，并纳入了时空滞后以考虑销售之间的相关性。为了进行敏感性分析，我们使用特定场所的虚拟变量来更好地考虑未测量的社区差异，并使用500米和1000米半径重复分析。
我们观察到2017年6月前两家SCS开业后出现了价格冲击（水平效应：-10.5%，95%置信区间：-19.1%，-1.1%），但实施后价格逐月上涨更快（趋势效应：1.1%，95%置信区间：0.7%，1.6%）。2017年11月第三家场所实施后没有立即产生影响（水平效应：2.4%，95%置信区间：-10.4%，17.0%），但此后价格再次上涨更快（0.9%，95%置信区间：0.4%，1.5%）。当我们用特定场所的虚拟变量替换社区属性时，我们观察到了相同的模式。2017年6月SCS实施后，销售价格下降（水平效应：-9.6%，95%置信区间：-15.0%，-3.8%），但逐月上涨更快（趋势效应：0.9%，95%置信区间：0.6%，1.2%），2017年11月SCS开业后没有水平效应（4.9%，95%置信区间：-7.3%，18.6%）且有正向趋势（0.9%，95%置信区间：0.5%，1.3%）。在大多数500米和更多1000米半径模型中，SCS开业后没有立即冲击，然而，正向趋势效应在所有模型中持续存在。
我们的模型表明，在SCS附近出售的房屋在实施后可能会立即经历价格冲击，并且在随后的几个月中有市场复苏的迹象。
