Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminology, University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, Canada.
Department of Economics, University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, Canada.
PLoS One. 2019 Apr 25;14(4):e0215954. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215954. eCollection 2019.
Quigley derived his hybrid price model to improve the precision of predicted prices of sold homes by statistically merging data of resold homes in a repeat sales model with that of once-sold homes in a single sales hedonic price model. The literature has few applications of the hybrid model aside from those by Quigley and his collaborators. Two reasons for this underuse may be its computational intensiveness and its marginal empirical improvement in comparison with two other models. This paper first demystifies this computational intensiveness by calibrating models in Microsoft Excel with transferable procedures into other software. It second evaluates the hybrid price model's empirical improvement as a reason for its underuse by predicting prices of 2,559 sold and resold homes observed in two inner-city neighbourhoods in Windsor, Ontario, during a 30-year period. The results as hypothesized are its lower standard errors of regression coefficients and higher simple R-squared than those of a single sales hedonic price model. Moreover, the hybrid model's predictions have higher correlations than those of the single sales model with not only in-sample observed prices or changes in prices but also out-of-sample ones. The conclusion speculates in plans for future research about reasons for two models' similar or dissimilar regression coefficients and standard errors predicting correspondingly similar or dissimilar sale prices of homes through time.
奎格利的混合价格模型旨在通过将重复销售模型中的转售房屋数据与单一销售特征价格模型中的一次性销售房屋数据进行统计合并，从而提高已售房屋预测价格的准确性。除了奎格利及其合作者之外，该混合模型在文献中很少有应用。这种低使用率可能有两个原因：其计算强度高，与另外两个模型相比，其经验改进幅度较小。本文首先通过将可转移程序的模型在 Microsoft Excel 中进行校准，来消除这种计算强度的神秘感，然后将其转移到其他软件中。其次，通过预测安大略省温莎市两个内城区在 30 年期间观察到的 2559 套已售和转售房屋的价格，评估混合价格模型作为其低使用率的一个原因的经验改进。根据假设，结果是回归系数的标准误差较低，简单 R 平方值较高，优于单一销售特征价格模型。此外，与单一销售模型相比，混合模型的预测与样本内观察到的价格或价格变化以及样本外价格具有更高的相关性。结论推测了未来研究的计划，研究两个模型的回归系数和标准误差预测相似或不同的原因，以及相应地预测房屋销售价格随时间的相似或不同的原因。
