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1990年至2019年非恶性上消化道疾病负担的全球、区域和国家变化模式以及未来十年的预测。

The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of nonmalignant upper gastrointestinal diseases from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next decade.

作者信息

Bai Zihao, Wang Hao, Shen Chong, An Jia, Yang Zhaocong, Mo Xuming

机构信息

Nanjing Children's Hospital, Clinical Teaching Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.

Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.

出版信息

Int J Surg. 2025 Jan 1;111(1):80-92. doi: 10.1097/JS9.0000000000001902.


DOI:10.1097/JS9.0000000000001902
PMID:38959095
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11745775/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Nonmalignant upper gastrointestinal diseases, including peptic ulcer disease (PUD), gastritis and duodenitis (GD), and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), significantly challenge global healthcare. These conditions not only impact patient health but also highlight socioeconomic development issues and healthcare system accessibility and efficiency. Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease database, this study aims to comprehensively assess the global burden of PUD, GD, and GERD, examining their association with the sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: Employing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, this study analyzed the disability-adjusted life years for PUD, GD, and GERD. We integrated the SDI with the inequality slope index and concentration index for an international health inequality analysis, assessing disparities in the burden of these nonmalignant upper gastrointestinal diseases. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine the effects of population growth, aging, and epidemiological change on disease burden. Frontier analysis was performed to identify potential improvement areas and disparities among countries by development status. Disease time trends were depicted using a Joinpoint regression model, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected the disease burden up to 2030. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates for nonmalignant upper gastrointestinal diseases declined. However, global geographic heterogeneity remained evident and closely linked to the SDI. Notably, low-SDI countries experienced higher disease burdens. Population growth and aging emerged as principal contributors to the increasing disease burden. Despite development levels, many countries have considerable potential for reducing the burden of these diseases. Furthermore, significant variations in the time trends of nonmalignant upper gastrointestinal diseases were observed among countries and regions with different SDI levels, a pattern expected to continue through 2030. CONCLUSION: Nonmalignant upper gastrointestinal diseases demonstrate notable heterogeneity across age, sex, and geography, with the disparities most marked in underdeveloped regions or countries. Consequently, it is imperative to focus research on policy development and to enact prevention and treatment strategies tailored to high-risk groups. This targeted approach is essential for effectively mitigating the disease burden.

摘要

背景:包括消化性溃疡病(PUD)、胃炎和十二指肠炎(GD)以及胃食管反流病(GERD)在内的非恶性上消化道疾病给全球医疗保健带来了重大挑战。这些疾病不仅影响患者健康,还凸显了社会经济发展问题以及医疗保健系统的可及性和效率。本研究利用全球疾病负担数据库,旨在全面评估PUD、GD和GERD的全球负担,并考察它们与社会人口指数(SDI)的关联。 方法:本研究采用2019年全球疾病负担数据库的数据,分析了PUD、GD和GERD的伤残调整生命年。我们将SDI与不平等斜率指数和集中指数相结合,进行国际健康不平等分析,评估这些非恶性上消化道疾病负担的差异。进行分解分析以确定人口增长、老龄化和流行病学变化对疾病负担的影响。进行前沿分析以确定潜在的改进领域以及不同发展状况国家之间的差异。使用Joinpoint回归模型描绘疾病时间趋势,并通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测到2030年的疾病负担。 结果:1990年至2019年期间,非恶性上消化道疾病的年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率有所下降。然而,全球地理异质性仍然明显,且与SDI密切相关。值得注意的是,低SDI国家的疾病负担更高。人口增长和老龄化是疾病负担增加的主要因素。无论发展水平如何,许多国家在减轻这些疾病负担方面都有相当大的潜力。此外,在不同SDI水平的国家和地区中,观察到非恶性上消化道疾病时间趋势存在显著差异,预计这种模式将持续到2030年。 结论:非恶性上消化道疾病在年龄、性别和地理上表现出显著的异质性,在欠发达地区或国家差异最为明显。因此,必须将研究重点放在政策制定上,并制定针对高危人群的预防和治疗策略。这种有针对性的方法对于有效减轻疾病负担至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/6841d6278ca9/js9-111-0080-g006.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/e592c74dd475/js9-111-0080-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/8866ccd1a77b/js9-111-0080-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/6841d6278ca9/js9-111-0080-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/00b8bd69ac3b/js9-111-0080-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/3c718de36840/js9-111-0080-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/ac95916ac371/js9-111-0080-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/e592c74dd475/js9-111-0080-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/8866ccd1a77b/js9-111-0080-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56bf/11745775/6841d6278ca9/js9-111-0080-g006.jpg

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[1]
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Emerg Infect Dis. 2024-5

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